20 October Report – Clinton stronger in final poll

The final US election debate was seen to be won by Hilary Clinton (CNN/ORC poll)

GBPUSD supported by data showing that the UK labour market remains resilient

Market focus today is on the ECB monetary policy meeting and conference

Last night, the final US election debate before the 8 November vote took place, with the focus again on the controversial nature of Trump’s remarks. Trump twice refused to say whether he would honour the election results if he is not declared the winner, fomenting the idea of a rigged system 

A CNN/ORC poll found that viewers perceived Hillary to have won the debate (52% versus 39%)

Also of note in the US, the Beige Book, released yesterday evening, showed that the US economy maintained a steady growth pace between late August and early October, as a tight labor market with nascent wage pressures contributed to a “mostly positive” outlook

Cable hit highs of 1.2329 (Bloomberg) yesterday morning on the back of data highlighting UK labour market resilience

The UK labour market continued to show resilience in August, with the lowest unemployment rate since September 2005 and core wage growth hovering around 2.2% 3m/y since October 2015

The ECB’s monetary policy decision today and the Q&A session will be closely followed. Barclays Research note “…we think the GC will likely wait until December to announce an extension of the APP beyond March 2017 and changes to QE parameters…”