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United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support


Where are the UK economy and financial markets going?  If you are left cold by the usual media headlines and consensus views and really want to know, then read  “Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support” – our first of five Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) reports produced by Olivier Desbarres.

This is a deep-dive on what has been driving UK economy and markets. It summarises the implications for retail sales, consumption, investment, savings, lending/borrowing, inbound/outbound tourism, headline GDP, labour market, fiscal policy (including tax rates and public spending), Bank of England monetary policy (inc QE), Sterling and interest rates in the short and medium-term.

When UK households and corporates save more, as they did in March-April, GDP growth typically slows or contracts

Source: 4X Global Research, Bank of England, Office of National Statistics
Note: *Quarterly Sterling deposits by households, private corporations and other financial corporations in UK-resident banks and building societies. Q2 2020 figure assumes that cash deposits in May and June were half the deposits recorded in April 2020 (£37.3bn).

The things we know…

  • The lockdown’s devastation on UK and major economies
  • The crippling of growth and government finances, with GDP in April back to 2002 levels
  • How a gradual unlocking brings 2020 H2 promise, but….

What you don’t want to know, but should:

Outlook for taxes, GBP, gilts, QE and other government policies which will come about due to the long term changes in economic behaviour, labour market pains, the huge hit to public finances and a possible second-wave of covid-19 cases.

To purchase an individual report (£80) or the five-part series (£250) contact us at and a member of the team will be in touch shortly.

For further information about 4X Global Research or to discuss a subscription to its research products and services, please email odesbarres@4XGR or call Olivier Desbarres on +44 (0)20 3811 0454

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Make sure you do your own research or consult a professional advisor.

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