The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by more than 1.00% at the opening of the Asian market Thursday, reaching the $70.50 per barrel zone.
This increase was mainly driven by positive data on manufacturing activity in China, which showed its highest growth in the last three months. This news generated renewed optimism regarding crude oil demand, pushing its price higher.
China, as one of the world’s largest oil consumers, plays a key role in energy market dynamics. The expansion of its manufacturing sector suggests a greater need for raw materials, including crude oil. This growth has led to expectations of higher consumption, strengthening investor confidence in the oil sector.
China remains key factor in WTI price
China remains the key factor in WTI oil price dynamics, regardless of what is happening in the Middle East or what OPEC chooses to do. Last year China’s crude oil imports decreased to 11.1m barrels per day, down 200,000 barrels per day from 2023. That trend is expected to continue in 2025.
Oil bulls are obviously betting that China can turn itself around and jumped on data from the manufacturing sector this week, especially the Purchasing Managers’ Index which climbed to 50.2 for February (from a a contraction in January). But that growth still looks anaemic and there are obviously geopolitical factors in play that could hurt China’s economy over the medium term.
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OPEC+ seems increasingly rudderless in this scenario. Kazakhstan, a supplier of oil to China, increased its oil and gas condensate production by 13% to a record of 2.12m barrels per day in February. This effectively exceeds its OPEC+ quota.
While Kazakhstan has said it will cut its oil production to compensate, there are currently no signs of this happening. The country continues to boost oil production at its Tengiz field. And Kazakh production has been ramping up despite an attack by Ukrainian drones on the strategic Caspian pipeline in Russia.
More US tariffs could hit WTI prices
Uncertainty persists on the international stage due to the possible imposition of new tariffs by the United States. Such a measure could affect global trade and, consequently, the world economy.
Energy market analysts are warning that any obstacles in trade relations between these powers could limit economic growth and, in turn, reduce crude oil demand.
Market sentiment also received a positive boost following the recent summit of European leaders, where they reaffirmed their support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Caution persists for oil traders
Despite the optimism generated by these factors, experts recommend caution due to market volatility. Crude oil price fluctuations remain subject to multiple geopolitical and economic factors. Therefore, investors must stay alert to upcoming developments that may alter the balance of the energy sector.
Some ETFs linked with Crude Oil
 | WTI Crude Oil | Crude Oil LON:CRUD / USD |    |
| WTI Crude Oil 3x Daily Leveraged | Crude Oil LON:3OIL / USD | |
| WTI Crude Oil 3x Daily Short | Crude Oil LON:3OIS / USD | |
