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New Homepage Community General Forum EUR/USD EURUSD trading ideas

This topic contains 33 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by  Matt Vann 8 months ago.


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  • #12803

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    EURUSD trading ideas, entries, exits and daily EURUSD analysis posted daily on The Armchair Trader by professional traders and our members. 

     

    This topic has been set up to provide a place to post about trades, be they winners or losers, and for pre and post-trade analysis and discussion on EURUSD trading ideas. No matter your experience level, feel free to chime in with your trade ideas for EURUSD.

    This thread is for EURUSD trade ideas, but feel free to setup another, ideally titled ‘GBPUSD trade ideas’ or whatever it is you’re trading, and we can partake in that one too.

     

    Bear in mind that these posts do not constitute trading advice. The opinions expressed by the author are not necessarily those of The Armchair Trader. This is not a topic to air broker grievances, or promote them – posts that mention specific brokers and/or links to those brokers may be removed.

    • This topic was modified 9 months, 1 week ago by  Graeme Andrew. Reason: testing image upload
    • This topic was modified 9 months, 1 week ago by  Matt Vann.
    • This topic was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Matt Vann.
    • This topic was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Matt Vann.
    • This topic was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Michael Morton.
    • This topic was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Michael Morton.
    • This topic was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Matt Vann. Reason: title edit
    • This topic was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  Matt Vann.
    • This topic was modified 6 days, 22 hours ago by  Steve Plummer.
  • #13160

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    So, without further ado … based off some of Marks’ comments today, I’m running a couple of paper trades with bracket orders on EURUSD. Not what I’d normally do admittedly, and my levels aren’t exactly as prescribed by Mark but I’ve put some sensible-ish stops on place and limit orders to take me out if profit levels are reached, as I’m off to play a (bad) game of golf with my dad this morning. I’ll check back on this later.

    Trade entry: stops/limits in place

    Trade entry - stop/limits in place

     

    Mid-trade: long from 11260 with some profit

    • #12814

      Graeme Andrew
      Keymaster

      Do you have a rule of thumb when it comes to setting stops, Matt?

    • #12816

      Matt Vann
      Moderator

      Normally I’d have the stop order set to either a level of loss that I’m comfortable with, or more usually a technical reason, i.e just under support or just above resistance. Now that the long order was triggered, i’ve left the short order in place but modified it to stay in place longer, rather than EOD, as we could test this level another day or even today, who knows, as that support level is still valid.

       

      The limit (exit) order is in place to liquidate the long at 11290 if it gets there, which it’s currently looking like it might (see below)

       

      Mid trade: still long and profitable.

      eurusd long november 18

       

    • #12818

      Matt Vann
      Moderator

      Or not.

      Out for a small profit. In hindsight, 11290 was the wrong target, given the likely resistance; I should have set it lower at 11280 where resistance was likely to come into play, and that target would have been achieved at the time I took the earlier screenshot. But then, this was setup in a bit of a hurry this morning before I went to play golf, so not ideal circumstances really.

    • #12847

      Mark Wogan
      Moderator

      Hi Matt, Graeme.

      Nice trade! that 1260 level also provided a great support entry later in the day as above.

      I´ve just been talking to Michael about the premium service you guys discussed the other day and he pointed me here. So I´m just making an initial comment to figure out how to use it etc.

      Waiting for the May presser – scheduled for 5pm (to see if the UK is still viable :)) and to get long or short the cable (I take an occasional one or two) and to see the reaction on the eurusd.

  • #13078

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    I set up some automated trades last night using limits after looking at last weeks’ levels, somewhat inspired by Marks continued posts over in our articles section. I had several possible resistance/support levels identified and I think Mark and I trade quite similarly, except he’s better than me.

    So, with limits in, I turned my iPhone off and went to bed. When I woke this morning, I was long EURUSD and in hindsight, could have been long a bit sooner than I was given the possible Elliot setup that had formed. But, I was long and profitable, so I moved the stop up to stop it become a loss, and the stop was triggered a few minutes later. A tiny profit, but a profit nonetheless. Of course, now I’m out it’ll probably push north to where my target was (11380), but that’s trading for you.

    Blue line: entry

    Red line: stop (modified, moved from @ 11350)

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Matt Vann. Reason: title change
    • This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Matt Vann.
    • #13083

      Matt Vann
      Moderator

      So, let’s look at how this is working out some minutes later.

      There was more upwards movement and we got very close – within two points – of my target price of 11380, so the lesson to take from this is not to move the stop unless there’s a technical (read: support or resistance) level to move it to. Had I not moved my stop, I’d still be long at this point with a stop around 11355-ish.

      However.

      The price is currently 11370. Would you let it fall back to 11355, a loss of 15 points, before liquidating that trade? Or would your fingers itch and you close it off, potentially leaving profits on the table. This is the traders’ eternal dilemma.

      We often hear the phrase, “let the winners run and cut the losers short” – but you’re not always sure on what’s going to be a winner, and when does a winner turn into a loser? More importantly, if you cut the loser short, how do you know it’s not going to turn back into a winner shortly?

       

      • This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Matt Vann.
      • This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Matt Vann.
    • #13085

      Matt Vann
      Moderator

      And there we have it. 11380.

  • #13125

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Another two trades run this afternoon on EURUSD short, both winners. I’ve had one small loser of -8 points earlier today (not documented for a number of reasons) but these two have eradicated that loss. One was taken at the failure of intraday support @ 11350 and the other – experimenting really – by adding to that position shortly underneath it – not a strategy I would advocate unless there’s sufficient profit in the first trade to cover any small loss on the second, should the market happen to turn around just as you get it rolling.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Matt Vann.
  • #13162

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    No mid-trade charts today, but I took a limit-based short at 11304 @ 2.45pm today, with a 20 point target which was realised at 11284 @ 4.10pm.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Matt Vann.
  • #13183

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    This morning initially looked like it would drop like a stone, and I was initially short and closed it for breakeven as I watched the market changing it’s mind. So, I decided to partake in some bottom picking (the chart variety) as these kind of entries offer low-risk entries, with tight stops just below support. I’m currently long from 11273, with the price currently at 11285.

    5 min chart

  • #13185

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    And with the market turning, we’re out for a quick scalp of +9

  • #13198

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Well, I’ve had two trades this afternoon. One to the short side which I closed for scratch because it was just faffing about; it wasn’t going where I expected, and so an opportunity came to get out of it for +1 and I took it.

    At the same time I closed the trade, I took a look at the kind of channel that had formed today, and set up some limit orders at the edges of the ranges to capture any moves outside of those ranges. Honestly, I didn’t expect much to happen today given how quiet it’s been.

    And then Mark Carney, the Governor of the BoE came on the TV and spoke about how the pound would crash and inflation would soar in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

    And this happened.

     

    Yes, in less than one minute, my long entry was triggered and my exit was triggered, an exceedingly quick +40 points profit, given my entry around 11304 and the pre-determined exit at 11344. That is what limit orders are exceedingly good at.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by  Matt Vann.
  • #13216

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    A good start to the day; three winning trades, two on EURUSD and one on GBPUSD. The GBP USD one was a simple sell from a pullback, which gave a low-risk entry as a tight stop, and a quick run to profit target at the previous low – see below.

    Manual entry at 12776 and automated exit at 12759 for +17

     

    The EURUSD trade was taken earlier at 11367 and then I added to it at 11364 because the bulls were clearly in control. Both trades covered at 11353 in the fact of likely short-term round number support, so profits of +14 and +11 respectively. So, that puts us on +42 so far for the day. Could be quiet for a bit now with the FOMC coming up at 1.30pm.

  • #13225

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Update from earlier today on the EURUSD.

    Price has been a bit jumpy today and there was news today of course; I decided to adopt a different approach, based on something I’d read in some of Scott Phillips’ content earlier this week, and took a short position on EURUSD just as it peeked it’s head over the parapet at 11400 earlier today and price was going up.

    It didn’t take long before there was 10+ points on the table, but I decided to leave it be and set a limit order to take me out at a pre-determined price level – in this case, I chose 11365 as my exit, 35 points south.

    Anyway, it took 25 minutes. In this instance, I have to say I was damn lucky picking the almost exact top and bottom of that move, which is extremely rare. So, I’m up +77 for the day which is a fairly good result.

     

  • #13236

    Mark Wogan
    Moderator

    Matt – top trade that fade at 1.14 – had good looking written all over it :)).

    I´ll try posting some trades next week – tried yesterday but as all were quick scalps – everything was one and done before I got my act together 🙂 Have a good weekend.

  • #13237

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Thanks Mark; I was pretty pleased with it myself. You too.

     

  • #13268

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    A Sunday afternoon browse of the market gave a possible long setup on EURUSD which I took, as it was a low-risk entry. It worked out nicely, putting us up +20 points for the Sunday evening, and it wasn’t until this morning I bothered to actually look at the market; my long was 11322 to 11342. Not necessarily what I’d normally do, but with so a good r/r ratio it’s hard not to take the shot. So, a good start to the week.

    Unlike Mark’s commentary over on Diary of a Pro Trader, I tend to post my positions and trades during the day, so I’ll be on the lookout now for further trades during the session and will post those up as and when. I  don’t post them all as you may have gathered by now, but I try to keep things going here on the forums.

     

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  Matt Vann.
  • #13279

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Couple of other trades so far today, one loser and one winner; initially I was long this morning from about 11362 hoping for a run up to 11380 … it didn’t work out with a -9 point loss. However, as the market fell I sold into it at 11344 and out at 11330 for +14. So, overall we’re up +28 for the day so far. 

  • #13301

    Mark Wogan
    Moderator

    Morning – If anyone traded the levels I posted yesterday you should be in the money. I´ll post set ups today as we go.

     

     

     

     

  • #13303

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Cheers Mark, good to see your daily analysis and thoughts!

  • #13307

    Mark Wogan
    Moderator

    Update on todays levels noted in the diary….

    We didn´t get a trade at S1 to get long which is what I was waiting for. It traded off 1.1380 and pushed up through the 1.14 to clear some stops. It went straight through R1 so no trade on the lower time frame. At R2 it stalled and I was waiting for a 5m retest and lower close at the level to get short. It didnt materialize so I didn´t get a short on. If anyone traded it short at the R2 level its now in the money by +15 or so pips.

    More to come as we go through the day.

     

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  Mark Wogan.
  • #13309

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    I initially ran a fade again, just short of 1.14 and obviously got stopped out for -9, but my limit order long was triggered around the same time with a 1.1420 target which we just missed by a point… I’m still long with it now, so perhaps a second run will give me the point I’m looking for. And, I was long overnight from 1.1355 so I’m up on the day anyway, having closed that at at 1.1378

  • #13310

    Mark Wogan
    Moderator

    I suspect the dip below 3.0% in US rates is causing the USD to slip which should help the eurusd.

    Btw – I´ll only talk about the levels I write about on eurusd on here but for info I had a quick short on gbpusd on its run up on the back of the EU ruling on article 50. I shorted at 1.2828 and closed at 1.12806 for +22.

    Bit of a one off for me but all rallies have been decent sell opportunities for anyone trading the cable.

  • #13311

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Nice trade. I have to admit to staying clear of cable at the moment as I find it too volatile at the moment. When you catch a trade they tend to be quick and strong, but get it wrong and you know about it ever so quickly too.

  • #13312

    Mark Wogan
    Moderator

    Damn straight lol. I had a 5 pip stop on it !!

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  Mark Wogan.
  • #13314

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Right! Very tight indeed. Nice when you can get such low risk entries.

    Well, I didn’t get my 1.1420 although it looked possible for a moment. My stop took me out for a tiny profit as it reversed and dropped through the floor…

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  Matt Vann.
  • #13316

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Pretty choppy around the top today, and I exited my long above 1.14 for a small profit as referenced above, and then sat on the sidelines for a while whilst the market decided which direction to take. Eventually I jumped aboard a short from 11393, riding it down to support at 11363 where a limit order closed +30 for me. I’ve been out and about since then so missed the further 30+ that was available as the market continued to fall, trading at 11328 as I type. However, up around 40 points on the day.

  • #13344

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Couple of nice EURUSD trades today after the morning’s choppy mess got out of the way. I was originally long 11356 earlier but it didn’t look good after a few minutes so I closed it for -2. As they say, the purpose of trading is not to be right, but to hear the cash register ring, and I didn’t think it was going to ring. Turns out I was right, because not long after, price collapsed through what would have been my long stop. Thankfully, in the process it triggered my short limit at 11354, earning me +20 in short order down to 11334. As price spiked through some well established lows, I faded it again, long from 11325 and +20 out at 11345 a few minutes ago.

  • #13449

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Haven’t traded much the last couple of days as I’ve had a few things on my plate, but I picked up the mantle again this morning, conscious of today’s news (read: opportunity). EURUSD spiked up with NFP results today despite them being as expected, and what can often follow news spikes is news dumps, and the opportunity for a low-risk fade entry, and that’s what we got, 26 points from 11412 to 11386 when I closed it off, as I thought it was going to bounce on a possible s/r switch at the top of the range, despite me setting a target price of 11372. Positive result anyway.

  • #13536

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Couple of little trades today but we’re pretty range bound on EURUSD today so it’s not been easy. Initially I was long overnight but set my limit too far away, and so manually scratched it early today for a slightly pathetic +1. I was then short from 11422 to 11415, again a fairly measly +7, and just now I’ve closed a short from 11421 to 11412, a +9. So, all in all I’m so far +up 17 points in what is so far, a rather dull and challenging day, with a varying position sizes based on managing my risk.

  • #13621

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Ran a couple of trades yesterday but it was choppy and, predicatably, I got chopped to bits. I was actually long early in the morning at 11328, but I had a few other things on, wasn’t really paying attention to it and, well … less said about that the better. Had I left it alone – as is often best to do – it would have eventually yielded the +30 target I had on it.

    Back to this morning. A fade trade came up so I traded short on both GBPUSD and EURUSD and picked up +14 from 12682 to 12668 on Cable. The EURUSD I left running from 11382 with a target 11366 … in the event, I set my limit to 11366.3, and according to my broker it sold off to 11366.6 … so I missed the target by 0.3 points and eventually closed for +2 expecting further chop. It’s since sold off to 11359 but we’re still in choppy ground…

  • #13654

    Matt Vann
    Moderator

    Long out of the gate this morning as I was awake early with longs on GBPUSD and EURUSD at 12589 and 11308 respectively. Took profits a couple of hours later for +34 on the day, choppy since. Tough day with seasonal volatility?

     

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