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New Homepage Community General Forum FTSE 350 stocks to avoid in 2019

This topic contains 11 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by  Stuart Fieldhouse 4 months, 2 weeks ago.


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  • #13005

    Michael Morton
    Keymaster

    This topic is focused on companies listed on either the FTSE 100 or FTSE 250. If you wish to add a nomination, or give your opinion on any of the stocks mentioned, feel free to share them here.

    We welcome debate on the merits of each stock included but we ask that you provide sound reasoning to go alongside your opinion.

    Let’s put together a useful guide that new and inexperienced investors may use to help them make their investment choices.

    Bear in mind, all opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily endorsed by The Armchair Trader.

  • #13009

    Graeme Andrew
    Keymaster

    In light of today’s share price drop and a pessimistic outlook on advertising revenue, I see ITV as a “High Street” broadcaster in the same way Debenhams and C&A are/were High Street retailers. Have they adapted with the times – having a half-decent catch-up player isn’t enough – or by 2030 will they feature only in economics history lessons and an “I Remember the Noughties” Netflix retrospective featuring Sir Paddy McGuinness?

    If they do go under, is it good or bad news for the BBC? On one hand the shuffling off of such an old competitor for the audience may give the much-loved Beeb a bigger slice of the terrestrial audience. On the other it could be seen as a further indication that the only thing propping up Auntie is the license fee.

    Do you think ITV will survive for another 10 years?

    • #12782

      Stuart Fieldhouse
      Participant

      Looks like they are heading for 140, which as I’ve pointed out in this morning’s article, is as cheap as they have been since 2012. I think a lot of the analysts are behind the curve on this one. Too much hope is being pinned on new content generation but I think ITV management has already screwed the pooch on this one, they are simply too far behind the curve in my view.

    • #13016

      Michael Morton
      Keymaster

      I agree that the model of advertising to a mass audience has generally had its day. Brands can target specific audiences through video online and communicate directly with customers through social media without the huge costs involved. I think it’s a good plan to focus on content and distribution. Whether this shift is too late or not remains to be seen.

      With Netflix and Amazon crying out for a regular supply of high-quality shows, could we see an acquisition on the cards if revenues and the share price continue to slide into bargain territory?

  • #12841

    Stuart Fieldhouse
    Participant

    Vodafone – The EU ruling on the Liberty deal in Germany is going to be key here. Market seems to be assuming that this will all go swimmingly. I’m not so sure…

    • #12842

      Graeme Andrew
      Keymaster

      Vodafone – Yes that was a pretty unequivocal quote from BREKO against the prospect of the takeover being approved.

       

       

  • #13023

    Stuart Fieldhouse
    Participant

    Interesting dispute emerging between Neil Woodford, fund manager, and Stobart Group. As ever with these legal disputes, I’m not convinced all the facts of the case are out there, and I’m sure we will learn more as it continues. What is astonishing is that Stobart is taking one of its biggest shareholders to court, ostensibly for working with a former CEO to damage the firm.

    We’ve also seen Invesco lining up opposite Woodford in a vote on re-electing the chairman of the company. These are two very heavy weight names in UK asset management, but it seems to be Stobart which has decided to escalate things into a legal battle.

    What is interesting to me is the fall-out for Stobart on the publicity front, and how its share price continues to slide. We’ve seen consistent selling of the stock, and it is now more than 35% off its 52 week high. Really not very impressive.

    • #13036

      Michael Morton
      Keymaster

      Stobart Group is having a tough enough time of it as it is. It really doesn’t need to hit the headlines with another dispute. October results showed losses widening and until the boardroom can unify, I really don’t see much improvement here. The 8.93% dividend yield is certainly attractive, but that share price drop over the lasts 12 months would be a concern to shareholders.

    • #13056

      Stuart Fieldhouse
      Participant

      STOB is looking pants on the 90 day chart. They have rallied a bit this week. They have the agreement with BA City Flyer but that ain’t going to be enough. P/E ratio is now 6.9 though. Maybe worth buying in at 180? What do you think? Or is this a dud? As a small shareholder you are somewhat at the mercy of big shareholders like Invesco, which owns a TON of this stock.

      Related to this fracas at Stobart is the fact that Virgin Atlantic now seems to be in serious talks to buy Flybe itself.

    • #13066

      Michael Morton
      Keymaster

      Value hunters may well see opportunity at this price – but the business seems to be in turmoil at the top. Alarm bells for me.

  • #13184

    Michael Morton
    Keymaster

    UK retailers are having a tough time of it at the moment – none more so than Kingfisher, with the DIY chain’s share price showing steady downward momentum over the last 5 years. Third quarter results this week have done little to inspire investors, instead prompting HSBC and Goldman Sachs to downgrade their forecasts. Three years into their five year plan, Kingfisher remains profitable with a healthy property portfolio and an attractive 4.24% dividend yield. However, with Brexit looming and pressure on retail, it’s hard to see the share price arrest its current decline any time soon.

    Do you agree that Kingfisher is a stock to avoid in 2019? If not, feel free to reply to this post and have your say.

    • #13343

      Stuart Fieldhouse
      Participant

      I think retail stocks are going to be in a death spiral in 2019. The evidence is increasingly pointing towards a horrid Xmas shopping season in the UK which will feed into bad results across the board for most of these guys in 2019. Brexit is making most consumers very edgy and they are trying to conserve cash – many now worried about jobs.

      On top of that there is the usual competition from digital options. Just going out and about in Brighton it is noticeable that the shops are quieter than they were this time last year.

      ProShares has a retail sector inverse ETF (NYSE Arca: EMTY) which tracks the opposite of the performance of an index of big retailers. You’ve also got CLIX (NYSE Arca: CLIX) which is actually long an index of digital retailers and short bricks and mortars. Sadly both these products are US-listed and focused on US stocks, but they are a good way to approach this theme.

      US retailers are not in as bad shape as UK ones, and the US economy is in better shape, so your downside opportunity with US retail won’t be as good. If anyone knows of a UK version, do let me know. I’m tempted to put both these in my 2019 portfolio regardless.

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