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New Homepage Community General Forum Great investment ideas for 2019

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This topic contains 18 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by  Stuart Fieldhouse 4 months, 1 week ago.


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  • #13038

    Michael Morton
    Keymaster

    With the political and economic landscape proving difficult to predict and most asset classes (Shares, Bonds, Commodities, Property etc) showing unilateral movement while interest rates remain low, we’re keen to hear about new investment ideas that could help to buck the trend in 2019.

    We’re particularly interested in companies that are providing new products that can potentially change the modern landscape or potential disruptors of the established guard. The next Apple, Amazon or Tesla perhaps. Your idea may be a new IPO (Initial Public Offering) or a small business that’s just waiting to take-off – and it could be anywhere in the world.

    So if you’d like to share your idea, we’d love to hear about it along with your reasons for optimism. We also encourage debate about the ideas published – remember, no idea is a bad idea so we’d ask you to refrain from personal references.

    Bear in mind, the opinions expressed are from the author and are not necessarily those of The Armchair Trader. This topic is designed to provide investment ideas – please ensure you do your own independent research before you invest real money. We don’t want to hear about get rich quick schemes either – posts that are clearly designed for sales and marketing purposes will be removed.

  • #13079

    Michael Morton
    Keymaster

    I’ll start the ball rolling with a contentious one. Medical marijuana has been legalised in more than 30 US states as I write and Canada went a step further in October 2018 to legalise all consumption. It may not strike the right chord with every investor, but there’s no denying that marijuana demand is on the increase. Clearly hard line policies are waning in North America. Will that manifest itself more widely in Europe over time?

    Our Editor, Stuart Fieldhouse wrote about four companies that are well placed for any upturn, Koios Beverage Corp, Supreme Cannabis Company, Cannabis Sativa and Organigram Holdings. You can read about the North American marijuana stocks boom here.

    Could any of these stocks prove to be a sound investment in 2019? Or perhaps this new opportunity will see more players enter the market and lead the charge. Give is your view by replying to this post.

     

    • #13093

      Matt Vann
      Moderator

      The marijuana thing is interesting to me. Earlier this year at a conference in Orlando, I got talking to a couple of Canadian guys who are involved with a little bit of stock promotion in Canada, and are also involved in American Lithium (TSX-V: LI).

      However, they came to London in September this year and I went out for a few beers with them (read: hangover), and they introduced me to go a guy who’s into Marijuana in a big way – they are making vending machines that take cash, phones, electronics and dispense Marijuana right out of the machine there and then in return. How crazy is that?

      Anyway, I can see it becoming legalised in many more places – simply a matter of time – and I think at that point there will be a major boost to it’s sales. How to capitalise on that best?

    • #13152

      Stuart Fieldhouse
      Participant

      You are mainly looking at some small to mid caps in the US and Canada, quite a few on the TSX. Quite volatile but this is still an emerging market and I guess you need to accept that if you’re venturing into a new area like legal pot!

  • #13086

    Peter Watson
    Participant

    The arrival of US company Beyond Meat’s burgers to UK shores as the plant-based “meat” start-up is to start selling its chilled and frozen products through 350 Tesco stores. You will also be able to get them at branches of Honest Burger and All Bar One.

    I thought this was very interesting given the whole vegan trend going on at the moment and it is just one of an increasing number of alternative protein companies attempting to wean us off our more traditional protein sources.

    Other players include Impossible foods, which is also plant-based like Beyond Meat, and Memphis Meats which makes synthetic meat from animal cells.

    I suspect this story will continue to play out but it all depends on how good the vegan burgers actually are. If they really are a viable alternative, this could be massive – and they may do to meat what Tesla did to cars! If I can get hold of one of these burgers, I’ll do a review and let you know!

    • #13090

      Michael Morton
      Keymaster

      Looking forward to your review on the Beyond Meat burger, Peter 🙂 With the groundswell of vegan support growing, a tasty alternative to a meat based burger could be the catalyst for non-vegans to take the plunge, There could be some serious upside for these companies if they get it right.

    • #13091

      Peter Watson
      Participant

      Want to see a meat-eater testing out a meat free burger? Here’s my video review – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USiQOu1hDu0

    • #13088

      Kerry Metz
      Participant

      The beyond meat burgers are huge in the vegan world, they are making their way over to the UK now and there is a lot of excitement about them. I am not sure if they have already peaked or will peak more as they roll out in the UK?

    • #13108

      Peter Watson
      Participant

      I don’t think they’ve peaked Kerry – the UK is just the latest rollout and it hasn’t even been a full one. I live in Guildford and there is a very big local Tesco’s here which is in between the Royal Surrey County hospital and next to the Surrey University student campus (prime vegetarian/vegan potential, no?) and when I went to buy the Beyond Meat burger, the staff apologised for not having it in stock and that “everyone has been asking for this burger”! As far as I know, it is only available at Honest Burger and Tesco currently in this country (it looks like it’s available at TGI Friday’s in America, amongst many other places) but I was so astounded by the taste when I tried it recently that I think that anyone who is able to supply it should supply it. When you bite into it, it’s even slightly pink on the inside like a “normal” burger (due to the beetroot content, apparently)! Here are some interesting extra facts:

      1. Beyond Meat has applied to float on the NYSE and has some big underwriters on the ticket

      2. It is not actually marketed to vegans and vegetarians (who account for a very small amount of the general population in the US and UK) – it is trying to appeal to meat-eaters, which makes both long and short-term strategic sense (the former because of largely environmental reasons and the latter because of making money asap). HOWEVER…

      3. It is currently facing litigation with former co-manufacturer, Don Lee Farms, claiming that its contract was wrongfully terminated and that Beyond Meat subsequently shared trade secrets with subsequent partners

      4. The company has never made a profit.

      HOWEVER, this is not some shiny new software company with nothing to show for itself but a load of empty promises – it is a company with impressive backing and a properly good product that consumers like. Yes, there are competitors, but when you’ve got something as good as this I think it has a very decent chance of success as the potential size of the market is, I would argue, enormous. It’ll be interesting to see how they market it in the UK – maybe advertisers could re-badge it I-Can’t-Believe-It’s-Not-Meat or something ;0)

    • #13110

      Peter Watson
      Participant

      Whoops! I said NYSE, but what I actually meant was Nasdaq. Sorry!

    • #13132

      Kerry Metz
      Participant

      Thank you for the information, really interesting stuff! I agree that vegans are not the only target market here, so many people realise that the planet needs to make changes and fast!

      I have yet to try it, we are a vegan/veggie family except my youngest son who is happy to eat Iceland No Bull burgers and many other meat alternatives as they have got so much better in recent years, he wants to try the Beyond burgers too!

      Your YouTube video made me feel warm inside, to see a meat eater impressed with a plant based burger is just amazing!

    • #13134

      Peter Watson
      Participant

      Funnily enough, I had the burger with a vegetarian friend who is somewhat of a connoisseur of veggie options and he had the same reaction as both you and I! He thought that the patty was brilliant (like me) and was also pleased that a meat-eater was so gobsmacked (like you). I suspect this could disrupt farming somewhat if it gains momentum…

  • #13055

    Stuart Fieldhouse
    Participant

    Shorting the pound ahead of a no deal Brexit; this is always going to be a popular trade. As with the original Brexit vote, expect the brokers to widen those margins on GBP/USD and GBP/EUR in Q1, some earlier than others. You can get some interesting ETFs to do this with – you don’t need to be trading CFDs, although you won’t get the margin either. You can a x3 leveraged short GBP vs USD ETF on the London Stock Exchange. If the pound gets killed to the tune of 8-10% in event of a no deal Brexit (and that may be a conservative estimate), you could be making up to 30%. Park it in your ISA and it is tax free.

  • #13061

    Stuart Fieldhouse
    Participant

    Plenty of action in the oil market at the moment. This may play out before New Year, but again, short oil is looking good over the next couple of months. Depending on how much pressure Trump can bring on the Saudis, look to see oil pushed even further south. I feel we may have seen most of the interesting action on this trade, but oil has surprised on the short side before and has the potential to go lower, maybe even $50 again?

  • #13063

    Stuart Fieldhouse
    Participant

    I’m still a big fan of loading up on stocks that specialise in cyber security and secure data storage. I’m an enthusiast for this market. If data is going to be the oil of the next decade, companies in a position to protect and store it will be making big profits. I’m not just talking about Oracle or Sophos here. I’ll be back on this theme in the future.

  • #13065

    Michael Morton
    Keymaster

    Sounds like a sensible hedge for a worst case Brexit scenario Stuart

    • #13153

      Stuart Fieldhouse
      Participant

      I think this one may be going in my ISA this week if it qualifies. The pound is going to take a hammering if there is no deal, and if there is, I can just sell it.

  • #14720

    Stuart Fieldhouse
    Participant

    Fastned shares – listed on the Dutch NXchange, trading at €10.13. Someone has got to build the infrastructure needed to deliver this next generation of electric cars. Share price growth has been pretty consistent from about €8.

    Looking at the chart they were down at about €7.25 a year ago and there have not been any big surprises. May well load up some of these. Not sure they’ll go in the old ISA though.

  • #16644

    Stuart Fieldhouse
    Participant

    So we started our own algo-driven stock picks two weeks ago. This is currently something of an experiment. But we generated three buys straight away – AZN, DGE and GVC. We are really only looking at the FTSE stocks.

    At the moment we are looking at three long and three short for the portfolio. We are now two weeks into the trade and the trio of longs are all up despite a bumpy ride in the first week. We are going back to number crunching this evening to see if we should be exiting any of these trades.

    On the short side we were bearish on Rolls Royce, Rio Tinto and Spirax-Sarco. RR has been on a long run down but is starting to rally, Rio Tinto is at 45, so well down on where we entered on a short trade on 27 May when it was close to a monthly peak at 47.76.

    Spirax-Sarco is an interesting one. We came in on bearish sentiment and that has largely been borne out over the last two weeks, but that short trade is now giving up some ground. Starting to turn positive again. But we made most of our short gains while it was over the 50 day MA, which it still is. So could be interesting.

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