7th January 2019 at 8:14 am #13796
I haven’t posted in a while, but I’m running a couple of trades this morning that merit a mention, both trades on-going.
First one is a Brent Crude long trade which I opened on Friday. This is based off some recent analysis by Scott Phillips who, back on 2 January, sent out an email calling for a short-term long. I was pretty late getting aboard that particular train as it’s close to the target, but not too close that a short-term, low value trade isn’t viable. So, I took a very tiny position long on Friday, which at this point is profitable and with a stop that negates any loss. It’s a the make-or-break point here, where a close above 5830 makes it a good ‘un. Yes, it’s a tiny position but so what. This is how you need to trade, noobs.
The second trade is the GBPEUR short, taken not so long ago with a sensible 12 point stop and a 36-point target. So far it’s working out well as support has failed and we’ve had a close below that support, and a fairly convincing sell-off. Again, this trade is now zero risk as the stop can be moved not quite to protect profits, but certainly to prevent losses. Accordingly, due to a more acceptable risk, I put 1% of the account value up for grabs with my stop loss, and we’re short at £5/point.
7th January 2019 at 12:34 pm #13800
So, we’re out of both of those – +83 on the Crude trade and +22 on the GBPEUR.
16th January 2019 at 6:21 pm #13981
The last couple of days have been up and down. I was down 31+ pips over a couple of days when I made, quite honestly, poor trading decisions. There were reasons, but not excuses. Those reasons being my 8 (now 9) year old son and him just being a kid and doing a perfectly wonderful job of distracting me.
So, I obviously had to make those pips back, and today was a good day, which by all accounts, was extremely fortunate because it’s been chop, chop and more chop.
My first winner was actually setup a couple of days ago. I was long on Crude oil from 5161, and came out today on a limit order at 5225 for +63. That put a smile back on my face. I find that Crude is pretty tough to day trade, swing trading working out better. Thoughts?
The second trade of the day was of course EURUSD. Similar to Mark, I’d previously identified 11420 as a level that had some happenings behind it, so when I saw an opportunity to short it today at 11414. It sold off relatively quickly, resulting in a very happy Matt as we gained +31 here at £5/point, a pretty quick £155 thanks very much. I was out at 11383, which was almost the exact bottom – chosen because I figured if it sold through the support I saw there, it’d continue to sell off to Mark’s R1, and if didn’t, it’d come back pretty sharpish. So, a quick move of the stop (thanks 02 and mobile trading) and we were out when price quickly reversed.
I’m not sure if it’s a good sign or not when your 9yr old comes over and asks what you’re doing, and seems to express a genuine interest in the red and green lines on your screen and how that translates to making money (this is the first time he’s ever expressed an interest in anything like this), but it was certainly interesting when he realised that the losses (and profits) were genuine, real money that can be spent (or lost).
I’m both hoping and not hoping that there’s a successful trader in him in 9 years’ time. Then dad can retire with the hot wife, Lamborghini (I’ve had a couple of Ferraris, so no more need for the prancing horse) and sunshine. Just need the hot wife. And the Lamborghini. Oh, and – bugger – the sunshine.
- This reply was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by Matt Vann.
17th January 2019 at 8:41 am #14000
Cheeky GBPEUR short this morning, based off not a lot other than price action and instinct that it was going to tank. On this occasion, I was right, although my entry was somewhat late as price started to collapse; not ideal, because it could have reversed at this point and taken me out. But, it offered good R/R and a relatively tight stop, so on balance I thought it was worth it. Short at 11297.
I could only see two potential support points on the way down, around 11280 and 11265. I figured a manual trailing stop was the way to go, as, given the speed of the collapse (15m chart above), these things can turn around pretty fast and there’s no point losing big profits to a fast reversal. So, instead of an automated stop I sat and trailed it manually. Sure enough, support comes in around 11280 and I moved the stop tight behind the position. For about 5-10 minutes it dithered and I thought might continue south to 11265 … but in the end the bulls won, with a fast, powerful reversal up and through the stop. Out for +13.
- This reply was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by Matt Vann.
24th January 2019 at 8:28 am #14278
I’m not posting too much lately as I’ve found it’s been affecting my trades a little so I scaled back. But this one is worthy of a post.
Slippage is something that is sometimes encountered during times of news; it’s where you’ve got a stop or a limit order in place and, due to extreme volatility, the broker is unable to fill your request to liquidate your position at the pre-agreed price, so they ‘slip’ you to the nearest price at which you can be filled. It’s just one of those things you have to suck up.
Normally, quite honestly, you get screwed; your stop is slipped and it costs you money. But this morning, thanks to news from the French (and an alert from Triggerbuddy), slippage worked in a positive way for me, filling my limit order to close my EURUSD short some 17 points lower than expected, realising me a fairly healthy additional extra profit.
This chart below is on the one second timeframe, so you can see how quickly price moved; 16 seconds. This is pretty rare for this to happen, certainly don’t count on it, and if it does happen, count on it usually being the other way round.
Remember that trading is a zero numbers game; for every winner there is a loser, so although I made money here, a heck of a lot of people got screwed.
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