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We are clearly at a crossroads on many fronts

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Saxo Bank has published its Q4 2018 Quarterly Outlook for global markets. Over the coming days, The Armchair Trader will bring you insight and opinion from their team of experienced analysts.

We’ll start this series with a typically punchy overview from Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and CIO at Saxo Bank.

“We are clearly at a crossroads on many fronts: globalisation, geopolitics and economics”

The next quarter will either see dampening of volatility by a less aggressive Fed, more active easing in China, and a compromise on the European Union budget… or a further escalation in tensions between all three areas.

I would not bet against the latter into Q4, but I remain confident that we stand only a few months away from the beginning of a new easing cycle based on ugly realities, not the hope expressed by politicians and often market consensus.

”For now, we estimate that the US economy has peaked – the powerful expansionary cocktail of unfinanced tax cuts, repatriation of capital, and fiscal spending ramped up growth in the US, but these one-off effects will peter out as the year ends.

Already the US housing market is showing signs of strain as the higher marginal cost of capital (the higher yield on mortgages, more specifically) is starting to have a material impact on future growth.

”As certain as we are about the US having peaked, we are less certain as to how soon China will reach the bottom of its deleveraging process and begin to expand more forcefully again.”

You can access Saxo Bank’s full Q4 2018 outlook, with more in-depth pieces from their analysts and strategists here. You can find out more about Saxo Bank’s UK business, Saxo Capital Markets, here. >

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research or consult a professional advisor.

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