China’s economic footprint in Africa is now impossible to miss. From railways in Kenya to ports in Nigeria, its concrete, loans and products have become everyday features of life across the continent. But what do Africans themselves make of this deepening entanglement?
A new study from the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business (CKGSB), the IE China Observatory and the IE Africa Programme offers a rare glimpse from below, drawing on Afrobarometer survey data covering 27 African countries between 2016 and 2023.
The report, China’s Economic Influence in Africa: A Data-Driven Analysis, led by Bin Ma of IE China Observatory and Stone Shi of CKGSB, finds a patchwork of perceptions. Awareness of Chinese financial presence is highest in East and West Africa, with Kenya leading the pack in recognition of Chinese loans.
North Africa, by contrast, shows much less familiarity. Citizens generally see China’s loans as coming with fewer strings attached than those offered by Western multilaterals or bilateral creditors.
Shifting balance of sentiment
The findings also reveal a shifting balance of sentiment. In Kenya, Mauritius and Nigeria, perceptions of Chinese influence have strengthened markedly over the past seven years. But in South Africa, Cameroon and Tunisia, the opposite trend holds: Beijing’s sway is viewed as weaker than before.
What accounts for this divergence? The study points to investment in business and infrastructure, along with the affordability of Chinese consumer goods, as major drivers of goodwill. Diplomatic gestures, though much vaunted by officials, make less of an impression.
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For Li Haitao, dean of CKGSB, the lesson is clear. “Balancing global perspectives with local needs in the process of globalisation has moved from a theoretical discussion to a pressing issue of practice,” he says. In other words, if Chinese companies are to thrive in Africa, they must temper grand strategies with an understanding of local realities.
The study also sheds light on Beijing’s evolving concept of soft power. As Jose Felix Valdivieso, chairman of the IE China Observatory, puts it, China has “reinterpreted soft power to include economic tools, such as infrastructure investment, trade, and development finance, as key levers of attraction and influence”. In Africa, this economic diplomacy is particularly visible. Railways, roads and industrial parks are not just commercial assets; they are also instruments of persuasion, symbols of partnership and sometimes flashpoints of contention.
South Africa’s posture is changing
Yet enthusiasm is not universal. In South Africa, often touted as China’s closest partner on the continent, perceptions of Beijing’s influence have waned. Debt concerns, governance anxieties and suspicion of overreach have made publics more wary. Cameroon and Tunisia show similar dips, suggesting that the “no strings attached” narrative does not always convince. For critics, Chinese financing risks replicating old dependencies under a new guise.
For Europe, the findings hold implications too. Enrico Letta, dean of the IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs, argues that the data provide “a valuable foundation for strengthening EU-Africa relations by revealing how African citizens perceive China’s influence”. By understanding what Africans welcome and what they resent, Brussels may sharpen its own engagement strategy.
The report does not prescribe a single path forward. Rather, it offers a foundation for dialogue — between Africa, China and Europe — on how to make external involvement more transparent, sustainable and responsive to local needs. China’s presence in Africa is not going away; indeed, projections suggest it will expand further as the continent’s infrastructure and energy demands grow. The question is whether that presence can be shaped in ways that serve citizens as much as states.
In the meantime, Africans are weighing the trade-offs in real time. A railway that cuts hours off a journey may earn gratitude; a loan that saddles a country with opaque debt may stoke resentment. For Beijing, Africa remains both showcase and stress test: the continent where its model of economic statecraft is on display, and where its limits may become most visible.
