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Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Tuesday 18th September

Following on from yesterdays price action we can see that the sharp reversal that occurred last Friday was mostly unwound on Monday, possibly suggesting that the move down on Friday was nothing more than weekly profit taking and the move up to the top of the range we spoke about yesterday is still in tact. If that is the case I will be looking for a break of the range high and some form of retest of the level to provide a good long entry. See Daily chart below.


EURUSD Daily 1809

On the 1 hour chart below we can see that levels I posted represented good trade entry points based on the initial move up from point 1 as indicated.

The quick drop below the Friday and Sunday Asian range low which left a wick on the closing price is often a good indication that a low was in early on Monday and we should be looking for long entries.

You can see that the price didn’t quite make our noted level to the downside (just below point 1 as indicated ) but the H1  candle closed right at the ascending trendline. It then moved up to our blue line level at point 2, closed above it and continued to move up. During last nights Asia session we had a retest of a noted level at 3 and price moved back upwards again. All this is shown on the H1 chart below.


EURUSD Hourly 1809

We can see further detail on the 5M chart which more clearly shows the initial wick at point 1 and the continuation of the price move to point 2. Point 2 on the 5m chart clearly shows where the highest probability trade set up occurred as price formed a level at the 1.1650 level and kept closing above giving us a good indication that price was looking for higher levels. This price move continued through the day to just short of the 1.1700 big figure level.


Performance chart

Considering yesterdays moves I will be looking for a continuation of this move to test the range high at 1.1750s though I will be looking for any pullbacks early in the London session to provide a good entry level.

All the charts are marked up with likely reaction levels but we might find that price simply continues higher to take out the significant levels noted on the D1 and H1 charts.

One point to bear in mind is that The US has confirmed that $200bn of trade tariffs will be imposed on China which may help to strengthen the $US so I will also be watching for any reversals to the downside should the price give any indication that such a move is developing.

While its unclear exactly quite how the $US will react at this point this is just something to be aware of.

Buena suerte amigos :)

Please note: All opinions expressed above are from the author and not necessarily shared by The Armchair Trader. All financial investments involve an element of risk. The value of your investment may fall as well as rise and you may get back less than your initial investment. With Spread bets and CFDs your losses may exceed your deposits.

Mark Wogan

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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