China’s export machine is roaring again, just as its trade confrontation with America enters its most fractious phase in years. The country’s shipments jumped 8.3% in September from a year earlier, comfortably exceeding forecasts and accelerating from August’s growth.
Imports rose by 7.4%, suggesting that the industrial base underpinning China’s trade power remains resilient despite tariffs, sanctions and the thickening fog of geopolitical hostility.
The numbers have landed at a delicate moment. In Washington, officials are hinting that the current three-month pause in import duties could be extended — but only if Beijing retreats from its plan to impose strict new export controls on rare-earth elements. These materials, essential for electric vehicles, semiconductors and weapons systems, have become a potent instrument of economic coercion.
China’s dominance in rare-earth production gives it leverage that no tariff schedule can easily offset. The country processes more than 80% of the world’s supply. By tightening export licences for rare-earths and related magnet technologies, Beijing has reminded the world that control over inputs matters as much as control over finished goods.
The United States, meanwhile, is attempting to rally G7 allies to coordinate responses, threatening tariffs of up to 100% on certain Chinese imports and exploring further curbs on Chinese software.
Who is in charge of the future of modern industry?
What began as a spat over trade deficits has evolved into a strategic contest over who controls the building blocks of modern industry. Washington’s goal is to prevent Beijing from translating technological prowess into global dominance; Beijing’s aim is to demonstrate that it can withstand Western pressure while dictating terms in supply chains that others cannot replicate.
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China’s latest trade data strengthen its position. The revival in exports is not driven by America, where shipments continue to contract sharply — down more than a quarter from a year ago. Instead, China’s exporters are finding new growth in Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, all of which are recording double-digit increases in imports from the mainland. The reorientation shows how effectively Beijing has diversified away from reliance on the US consumer, using state-directed credit and industrial policy to reinforce manufacturing capacity in sectors from electric vehicles to advanced electronics.
Washington’s uncomfortable truth
This shift also underscores an uncomfortable truth for Washington: the global economy still runs through China’s factory floor. Even as Western governments champion “friend-shoring” and supply-chain diversification, few countries can match China’s scale, logistics or pricing power.
Markets have begun to notice. Currency volatility is rising, commodity prices are firming and investors are reassessing exposure to industries most dependent on Chinese manufacturing. If tariffs are raised again, the resulting disruptions could feed through to inflation just as central banks are preparing to loosen monetary policy.
The implications reach beyond the two superpowers. Countries able to fill gaps left by restricted trade — in Southeast Asia, India or Latin America — may emerge as relative winners. But for now, Beijing appears emboldened. Its export data suggest not an economy buckling under tariffs but one adapting around them.
America may control the world’s largest consumer market, but China still commands the world’s workshop — and shows little intention of relinquishing that title.
