In the rapidly evolving landscape of EV battery technology, advancements are driven largely by the electric vehicle (EV) industry, where scale, efficiency, and economics reign supreme. While the technological forefront may reside in aeronautics and consumer electronics – fields less constrained by price and scale, progress is evident across all segments.
The development of traditional lithium-ion batteries has entered a new phase, characterized by two notable trends: Chemistries with high nickel and high manganese ternary cathodes, where nickel is governing today, but manganese is set to catch up. Also, the evolution of phosphate chemistries from Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP), into enhanced formulations like Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate (LMFP). The second point being the emergence of solid-state lithium batteries, particularly those utilizing lithium metal anodes, which is looking increasingly exciting.
Cell design, production optimization, and vehicle integration are advancing at a remarkable pace. However, this rapid evolution will also leave some manufacturers behind, potentially leaving the technological laggards facing defaults. No single design, chemistry, or company will dominate the market; rather, we can expect a concentration around higher-density products and more economically efficient producers. The looming questions remain: When will solid-state cells become mainstream? And how soon will we see lithium metal batteries in commercial use?
Charging speeds are set to enter the +4C territory in general, with CATL’s Qilin II cell and BYD’s Blade v. 2 achieving impressive rates of up to 6C, theoretically enabling a full charge in just 10 minutes. This advancement in charging speeds shifts the bottleneck around charging away from the vehicles onto the charging infrastructure.
Innovations in battery production processes
The slurry casting process used in electrode production has significant environmental impacts and performance issues, because of too low active materials content and slow production, at high roasting temperatures, and thereby too high costs. One such solution is Maxwell’s dry process, which Tesla acquired but has yet to implement effectively. The industry may need to delve deeper into nano and crystalline structures, potentially leading to massive reductions in footprint, weight, friction, and costs.
Cathode developments
The ongoing optimization of cathode chemistries is producing new solutions each year. High nickel chemistries, such as 8-1-1 and 9-5-5, are currently leading the density race, but here will see manganese enter in a couple of years. Meanwhile, LFP chemistries are being enhanced and doped with various minerals, with manganese again as the key driver. The energy density of LFP is expected to rise from 170 Wh/kg to an impressive 205-240 Wh/kg with LMFP, placing them on par with decade-old NMC chemistries while offering faster charging times and lower costs.
Manganese is hopefully reaching its anticipated potential, substituting nickel in ternary batteries and iron in LFP chemistries. The advantages of manganese includes its high voltage capabilities and better chargeability compared to nickel, while also offering higher energy density than iron. Importantly, manganese is abundant and cost-effective, with direct mineral costs approximately one-tenth those of nickel.
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Electrolyte advancements
The electrolyte and separator, the crucial components connecting the anode and cathode, remain the least discussed elements in battery cells, hold the key to advancing toward the next generation of lithium batteries, solid-state batteries.
Considerable research is underway to improve liquid electrolytes, aiming to enhance ion transfer while minimizing flammability and dendrite growth. Liquid electrolytes, which are essentially advanced gels, will continue to play a significant role for years to come.
The quest for true solid-state electrolytes with integrated separation is critical, as it will catalyse the development of lithium metal anodes in solid-state battery cells. While solid-state cells are expected to hit the market in the 2026 model year, true lithium metal cells may take longer to materialize in EVs, although they could appear sooner in aeronautics.
The promise of solid-state cells
The transition to solid-state technology not only promises advancements in energy density and safety but also offers significant reductions in weight, cost, dendrite formation, and the potential for thermal runaway. However, the solid electrolyte poses two major challenges:
- Ion Transfer: The technical hurdle of allowing ions to flow through three solid materials is considerable but not insurmountable. This challenge can be likened to drinking coffee through the ceramic of your cup.
- Surface Interaction: For effective ion transfer between solid components, the surfaces must be exceptionally smooth and well-fitting. Poor contact areas will lead to inefficient ion transfer, which is why there is ongoing exploration of polymer and quasi/semi-solid electrolytes, which may include gel components, and then still face combustion risks.
Beyond stable ionic conductivity, solid-state technology facilitates the use of lithium metal anodes, which can theoretically offer a tenfold increase in capacity. However, battery function must remain balanced, as the component with the lowest energy density will ultimately set the cell’s overall capacity, the weakest link in the chain/battery so to say.
Anode innovations
Anodes currently represent a bottleneck in achieving higher cell densities. The shift away from pure graphite anodes toward a blend of silicon-doped natural and synthetic graphite is happening. The next step on product development are pure silicon anodes. They are though anticipated as a transitional solution leading to the upper goal: the solid-state cells with lithium metal anodes.
As of 2024, a viable path for solid-state cells has emerged for several Europaen EV manufacturers, also with the potential for lithium metal anodes. The upper echelon currently is the innovative approach of QuantumScape’s “anode-less lithium metal cell,” where the anode re-utilizes the electrons and lithium ions transported from the cathode. This design allows lithium ions to traverse the solid separator/electrolyte, forming lithium metal at the anode. This method poses unique “behavioral engineering” challenges, as lithium is a highly reactive, friendly, and even angry and potent material. To put this into perspective, lithium is seen as the energy source in fusion reactors.
The flexibility required by the cell demands innovative casing solutions, and QuantumScape’s hybrid pouch format exemplifies this approach. Although these engineering tasks are complex, they represent ground-breaking and disruptive advancements, promising lower mass, reduced material usage, and higher power and energy density per kilogram and liter.
Conclusion
As we look toward the future, it’s clear that the transition to electric mobility is well underway. This shift will necessitate more electricity production and smarter energy grids, primarily powered by nuclear and solar sources, and managed by intelligent energy management systems and large-scale battery storage.
The pace of battery advancement is impressive, and considering the progress made over the past decade, the next ten years are poised to yield developments comparable to the evolution of the internal combustion engine since Carl Benz’s first Motorwagen in 1885.
Much like the mobile phone revolutionized communication with the launch of the Apple iPhone in 2007, modern electric vehicles, equipped with new operating systems, autonomous driving capabilities, and shared ownership models, are set to disrupt every facet of transportation and vehicle ownership. The future looks bright, agile and fun, for some, and very challenging for others.
The investment side of battery technology and the upstream resources – aka mining companies – I will look into in the next articles.
Henrik Mikkelsen is a Strategist, Investment Advisor and Business Developer with Iridis AG, an investment management and corporate advisory firm in Zug, Switzerland. Henrik has more than 30 years of experience from investment banking and commodity trading, running strategies for clients and himself, as well as writing about markets and giving lectures on technical analysis and risk management.