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GBP gains some strength against USD


Somewhat relevant to this story today, our own theoretical GBPUSD short shows just how upside down things can go if you’re not watching your trades!

Market News

Attention today will be on Theresa May’s speech expected to take place at c.11.30, though the exact timing is unconfirmed. May will set out her plan for Brexit and there is speculation that she will say that the UK is likely to pull out of the single market and seek a completely new trading relationship with the bloc

  • A Telegraph article suggested that May has a 12 point plan for Brexit negotiation measures with no intention of being a partial or associate member of the EU or any position that leaves us half in or half out
  • Expectations that her rhetoric will lean towards a “hard Brexit” are already largely priced in but confirmation of this could still weigh on GBP particularly if there is mention of an unwillingness to compromise on removing the supremacy of the ECJ in English law. Any ‘softer’ rhetoric or a focus on the economy and growth could see a more aggressive rally in GBP
  • GBPUSD has risen above 1.2100 this morning. GBPUSD support comes in at 1.1983, yesterday’s low, with resistance at 1.2150, ahead of 1.2250 and 1.2440. EURGBP support comes in short term around the 0.8750-60 area, ahead of 0.8695 and 0.8630, with resistance at 0.8850 and 0.8900

The dollar weakened across the board overnight on the back of a WSJ article in which Trump suggested that the USD was “too strong” (referring to China’s CNH intervention), whilst criticising the GOP Border Adjustment Tax Plan as being “too complicated”

Last night, BoE Governor Mark Carney gave a speech on the trade-off that the BoE faces between inflation and output

  • Barclays Research commented that “…his speech was somewhat more downbeat than most recent MPC speakers, [and] we would interpret the speech as setting up the argument for why the MPC can remain on hold in the face of rising inflation later this year …”
  • The reaction to his speech was muted being somewhat overshadowed by the anticipation of May’s speech today

Today’s currency rates

GBPUSD = 1.2128


GBPEUR = 1.1377


EURUSD = 1.0661


GBPAUD = 1.6104


EURGBP = 0.8790

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Make sure you do your own research or consult a professional advisor.

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