In this article I will concentrate on five stocks I have covered before on The Armchair Trader.com, but look to be very interesting in medium and long-term especially. This Q1 reporting season was in Finland/Nordic and like in the USA, it’s “buy the rumor and sell the news” in this market except for a few stocks like Harvia.
HARVIA, HARVIA OYJ, (FI4000306873)
A positive preannouncement for Q1 on April 16th 2021 pushed the stock close to €40, which was my target for the whole year of 2021
I have covered Harvia since November 2019. The company keeps on under promising and over delivering. The long-term growth rate of the company is 5% top line per annum which looks conservative when you deliver 94% growth in Q1. The guidance for the long term is a joke. During the conference call on May 5th, 2021 CEO Tapio Pajuharju estimated that the Spa & Sauna market would grow over 10% in the next two to three years. Knowing how conservative Harvia is at giving guidance I would at least double that or maybe even triple it.
Finnish analysts again cannot estimate growth companies
Again after the Q1/2021 event new price targets came from Finnish analyst – Inderes/Petri Kajaani – raising the price target to the €47 level from the previous €33 level. Kajaani had promised to eat his hat two years ago, if the stock would ever reach the €40 level. He did it, but ordered a cake shaped like a Harvia cap, and made a video of it last Friday May 21st. Nice cop out.
Going forward in 2021 Harvia promises excellent execution
The stock has been trading over the last 52 weeks in a range of €10.2 to €44.2, closing on Monday May 24th at the €42.75 level. The performance of the stock is the best among the medium market cap companies in Finland. Its one-year performance is +297.67% – so is everything in the stock already? No, but I would estimate that we are half way there.
In baseball terms we are in the fifth inning . KLAFS (a private company targeting the luxury market) is a market leader alongside Harvia – both have 16% of the whole market. There are still a lot of small/medium sized companies available for M&A activity in the Spa & Sauna sector for both companies to buy. I plan to keep on buying the stock under €40 every time it goes below. The stock has over 20,000 shareholders and if we have a market correction in the summer – I would think that there will be some soft hands taking profits in this stock and giving new investors excellent entry points in the thirty something range. The stock has a €32 base level, which I would think holds very well in 2021. I am raising my personal target to the €55 level in 2021, Harvia is performing at a high level.
QTCOM, QT GROUP OYJ, (FI4000198031) – Nasdaq Nordic/Helsinki
Q1 numbers on April 22nd, 2021 pushed the stock over €100 again, but the quarter was nothing like in Q4/2020. Top line growth was only 27%.
The stock did not hold at the 100 level for long and dropped to €87, where it came back last week to over €100 again. Qt Group’s all-time high ATH is 107.2 so I think with interest rates rising globally the stock is fully valued at this time. The CEO Juha Varelius confirmed that the quarter was good and he said the medium/long term growth targets were around 30% top and bottom line. I would wait for another pull back to commit new money on this stock. This a stock where Inderes/ Mikael Rautanen might be right with a target price at the €105 level. Other analysts are Nordea at €102and OP Bank at €89 level and with a recommendation to sell.
Qt Group is expensive, but for a reason: what a Q4/2020!
I have not seen a Finnish stock almost double in a month at this market capital size of over 1 billion euros – maybe ever. The Qt group (www.Qt.io) – a software maker – has already had the best year in its brief public history since 2016. This followed a demerger by Digia Oyj on May 2nd 2016 (both are ex-Nokia companies) and then quietly trading for years until December 31st, 2019 at €21. The 52-week range is ATH €107.2 – 21,3. The stock closed at €102.6 May 24th 2021 when writing this report.
Q4 2020 report exceeded all expectations after positive warning
The Qt Group was also able to guide full 2021 results with 25-35% topline/bottom line growth. All five Finnish analysts raised their targets to around €95 euros AGAIN after the fact. Inderes CEO and Head Analyst Mikael Rautanen was so “bullish” on the company that he had problems to keep calm. Maybe the best Finnish growth company of his career EVER?
Why? What happened in Q4/2020?
Qt Group launched a new version of its software to Qt Group developers in October 2020. The license sales will force the developers to activate version 6.0 in a few years, which means 30% topline/bottom line growth for more than a few years to come. The growth is almost 90% guaranteed with this upgrade.
What is Qt for us non-IT developers?
It is like MS Office for developers – you use Qt to create almost everything you code! Qt Group (Nasdaq Helsinki: QTCOM) is a global software company with a strong presence in more than 70 industries and is the leading independent technology behind millions of devices and applications. Major global companies and developers use Qt worldwide, and the technology enables its customers to deliver exceptional user experiences and advance their digital transformation initiatives. Qt achieves this through its cross-platform software framework for the development of apps and devices, under both commercial and open source licenses.
NORDIC “ETRADE” NORDNET WITH NORDIC DISCLOSURE
SAVE, Nordnet (ISIN: SE0015192067) – Nasdaq Nordic/Stockholm
Nordnet (founded in Sweden in 1996) has operated in all Nordic countries except Iceland since 2009, when it bought eQ online Finland. Since the financial crisis in it has survived and listed on Stockholm NASDAQ Nordic with huge success in November 2020.
Q1 2021 39% Customer growth in year 2020
At the end of March, Nordnet’s customer base amounted to nearly 1.4 million Nordic private individuals, and 167,200 new savers joined Nordnet during the quarter – more than for all of 2019. Counted as a percentage, Nordnet’s annual customer growth is 39%, which is a fantastic figure that the company says it is very happy and proud of. All of of its core markets showed double-digit percentage increases in the customer base compared with one year ago, and operations mainly in Denmark and Norway are in what can virtually be described as hyper-growth in terms of new savers, according to Lars-Åke Norling, CEO of Nordnet
Highlights from Q1/2021
- Record-breaking inflow of new savers, 39% annual customer growth
- High net savings and new all-time high for savings capital of SEK 648 billion
- The highest number of transactions for an individual quarter and extensive interest in foreign trading
- Successful launch of the new Norwegian pension account, EPK
- Implementation of digital processes for taking out and moving occupational pensions in Sweden
- Record-breaking financial earnings – SEK 830 million in operating profit
Trading so far
The stock has traded between SEK 100.6 to SEK 176,6 (All Time High). Nordnet closed Monday May 24th, 2021 at SEK 145.5 Market cap is 37 billion SEK, which is around €3.7 billion. I would be buying this stock at these levels. Growth is continuing over the medium level target of 20%. My target price of this year is SEK 225. This is a permanent growth story – Nordnet has been very successful with its online presence winning new clients from traditional banks. The Swedish analyst average is SEK 208 ranging from SEK 201 to 215.
Market leader with Nordic private investors
The great fact about this new public company is that it is mainly used and owned by the private investors of Nordnet. Nordnet the company publishes great detail on its trading account activity every month. With great details comes excellent transparency for investors.
Nordnet’s business benefits from a long-term trend of customer migration from incumbent banks to digital savings platforms. Nordnet is the only independent pan-Nordic digital savings and investments platform operating at scale, and as a result is well placed to capitalize on the migration to digital platforms across the Nordic region. Nordnet has a long-term track record of significant growth in customers and savings capital and has seen acceleration in its growth trajectory in recent years.
In Nordic countries in 2020/2021 private investors are back more than ever. Most of these investors never experienced the 2008 crash or the dot.com era. They are not afraid to save and invest. This especially applies for retirement reasons with the new pension oriented schemes offered in Nordic countries.
Which UK brokers give you access to Nordic stocks?
We are often asked which UK brokers provide access to Nordic markets. Saxo Markets and eToro give access to UK individuals to participate in Nordic stocks from the UK. There are still competitive margins for Nordnet on trades in Nordic countries. Usually fees run at at least €3-7 per trade and if you use leverage there are greater margins. Saxo Markets is the only real competitor in Nordic countries, but it is not much used in Finland or Sweden, but as it is a Danish company this is different story for the Danish market.
KAMUX, KAMUX OYJ, (ISIN: FI4000206750) – OMHEX Nasdaq
One of my favourites for 2021 and beyond
I did watch the Q1/2021 results and webcast call on May 12th. I have followed Kamux since the summer of 2020, but not until Q3/2020 did I believe this story had legs outside the Nordic region. Kamux has strong top line growth at 25% and bottom line growth of 44%.
Semi successful IPO in 2017
Kamux has been a relative success since it was listed in May 2017 at around €7.50 a share. The stock has traded between €5-8 until March 2020. The 52-week range is 6.91 – 15.97. The stock closed at €15.14 on May 24th, 2020 when I was writing this update. The All Time High (ATH) for the stock is €15.97. I would add to this stock right now – they are executing extremely well and the summer driving season will be a great success in Finland, Sweden and Germany.
Conservative analysts do not understand growth companies in Finland – did I say that before?
Five analyst houses in Finland follow the stock – the consensus target price is now €18. We believe the company has just begun executing Kamux’s long-term plan for Northern Europe domination in the used car market. With greater equity coverage this hidden gem could well exceed the conservative Finnish analysts’ previous targets around €11/14 and now €18 price target. My personal target is the €22 level for this stock.
Strong M&A results
The used car market is very fragmented in Finland, Sweden and Germany – most dealerships are family run and small. Most sales are new cars and used cars are usually treated as not really wanted but necessary for trade ins. Kamux is different since CEO Juha Kalliokoski has learned the business from the ground up. Working in the dealership at VW he learned that used cars where totally not run profitably in car dealerships.
Kamux was established in 2000
Kalliokoski established Kamux in 2000 and as they say, the rest is history. The company has grown to three countries with 79 stores. Kamux has grown with a lot of small M&A deals over the years. The real difference was it was able to grow outside Finland and last quarter the growth was positive even in Germany. This is significant: many growth companies are good growers in their national market, but only the great companies travel well to other countries.
The market for European second hand cars
As previously stated the market is very fragmented and consolidation is the key; with a public company you can use the stock and cash to do it. Over 30% of Kamux sales people and managers own Kamux stock and are highly motivated to increase their sales. In Nordic companies commission only does not work. The trick is that when sales people see that with little basic salary (for basic security needs €880 euros/month) given there is NO cap on the earnings, sales people can earn if they are very successful. It is up to a sales person to make as much as he/she needs is enough per month. Kamux is recruiting mostly from outside established car sales dealerships and train their own staff from scratch.
The future for Kamux
Kalliokoski (50 years old) is highly motivated and is promising strong performance over the years. As the main owner of the stock (over 15%) he is obviously driven to achieve his goal to be leading used cars sales dealership in Europe. The key is using internet and physical stores combined with the best inventory turnaround in the business and with the best trained/motivated sales force.
REMEDY ENTERTAINMENT OYJ, (ISIN: FI4000251897) /FIRST NORTH GROWTH MARKET OMXHEX NASDAQ
Remedy reported Q1 2021 ON MAY 12th
This stock might be the next Supercell 2014 (a private company sold to Tencent worth now over 10 billion USD) On May 19th 2021 Tencent bought 3.8% of Remedy Entertainment from Accendo Capital, which still owns 14% of Remedy stock.
The Deal with Epic Games was a truly EPIC game changer
Remedy Entertainment CEO Tero Virtala has worked over 20 years in the gaming industry and recently stated in an interview in Finnish newspaper Kauppalehti that things have never been so good for Remedy Entertainment. The stock price has fared very well during the Covid-19 crisis, rising close to the all time high on May 24th of €48.15. Priced at €48.15 the 52 week range is €18.15 to €49.9. Currently the market cap is roughly €620 million. The PE is a high 69, but with expected growth this year of PE 21. When you grow over 100% a year it is not a problem. I would buy the stock, if there were any weakness on the stock price closer to the €40 level. The target price for Remedy is the €50 level with Inderes, but after the Tencent news hit the market last week the stock is up over 11%.
Pure play listed gaming stocks are a rarity. Foreign buyers have history in this space in Finland – just look at Supercell (bought by Tencent) or Small Giant Games ( bought by Zynga) – the difference is those deals never came public first for us small private investors.
Virtala states that sadly there are only 30-40 private gaming studios left from 150-200 in the last decade, most have been bought by bigger players like EA, Microsoft, Tencent, Epic Games etc. Virtala’s was previously CEO and owner of Redlynx, which was bought by French company Ubisoft in 2011.
- Our 2021 Picks: How did we get on in May? (9 Jun 2021)
- Harvia does it again: stock hits all time high after Kirami acquisition (2 Jun 2021)
- Our 2021 Picks: How did we get on in March? (16 Apr 2021)