- US and UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) updates
- US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI)
- UK jobs data
Monday 13 February
It’s a quiet start to the week as far as economic data releases go. There’s just the latest update on Swiss CPI while Eurogroup meetings take place throughout the day. Earnings updates include Airbnb, Avis Budget, Ark Restaurants, Wynn Resorts and Marriott Hotels.
Tuesday 14 February
Overnight we have Australia’s NAB Business Confidence survey followed by Inflation Expectations from New Zealand, and Japanese Industrial Production. Then we have an employment update from the UK with the Claimant Count Change, the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings Index. As with the US, the UK Unemployment Rate (at 3.7%) remains at a multi-decade low, and this continues to be one of the bright spots amid the economic slowdown that both countries are experiencing. We also have the Swiss Producer Price Index (PPI). From the Eurozone we have GDP and Employment Change. But once again, the most significant data release of the week, if not the month, is US CPI. In December, Headline year-on-year CPI fell for the sixth successive month, down to +6.5% from a high of +9.1% last summer. Investors will be cheered if it continues to decline as this will encourage the belief that the US Federal Reserve is getting closer to hitting the ‘terminal rate’ for its key Fed Funds interest rate. But sentiment could sour dramatically should inflation not continue to slow, especially given the ongoing strength of the US labour market. Later, we have speeches from Fed members Lorie Logan and John Williams. Today’s earnings include AMC Networks, Akami, Analog Devices, Restaurant Brands, Kraft Heinz, Devon Energy, Crocs, Coca-Cola, Shopify and Trip Advisor.
Wednesday 15 February
Overnight we have Japan’s Tertiary Industry activity report and a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe. Then we have the latest update on UK inflation in the form of CPI, PPI and the Retail Price Index (RPI). UK inflation remains stubbornly high, with last month’s Headline CPI coming in at 10.5% year-on-year. While this represents a decline from the 11.1% rate from 2 months previously, it does suggest that the Bank of England has more to do when it comes to tightening monetary policy. Bringing down inflation is key. Cleverly, or rashly, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made it one of his ‘five priorities’ for this year. But the Bank has to balance the pain of persistently high inflation against the real risk of a recession which, although avoided so far, seems a possibility later this year. Following this, we have the Eurozone Trade Balance and Industrial Production numbers, with Housing Starts, Manufacturing Sales and Wholesale Sales from Canada. From the US we have a stack of data including the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, weekly Crude Oil Inventories and TIC Long-Term Purchases. But traders will pay most attention to the latest update on Retail Sales. Both Headline and Core (which excludes transport items) fell sharply lasty month, so investors will be hoping for signs of recovery. Key earnings reports come from AutoNation, BJ’s Restaurants, Marathon Oil, Roblox, Roku and Palantir.
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Thursday 16 February
Overnight we have Australia’s MI Inflation Expectations, Employment Change and Employment Rate. Then the European Central Bank (ECB) releases its latest Economic Bulletin. Then we have the Italian Trade Balance and a speech from the German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. Again, there’s a pile of US data including the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Building Permits, Housing Starts and Mortgage Delinquencies. There’s also another inflation update in the form of PPI. This has, like the CPI, moderated recently, and hopes are high that it will continue to do so. As for corporate earnings we have results from Hyatt Hotels, Applied Materials and Paramount.
Friday 17 February
Friday sees the release of some second order economic data releases. We have the UK’s Retail Sales, French Final CPI, the Eurozone Current Account and Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases. From the US we have Import Prices, the CB Leading Index and the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Report. Today’s top earnings come from Deere & Co, Barnes Group and Mercer International.
*Earnings calendar is subject to change
David Morrison is an Analyst with Trade Nation. Trade Nation was set up with the specific remit to help customers realise their trading goals by changing the way they engage with the financial markets. As well as providing full transparency and making sure all customers get a fair deal, Trade Nation is fully regulated. This means customers can be confident they’re getting the trading experience they deserve.
