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Economic news: Potential market movers for the week ahead

*
  • First look at US Q4 GDP
  • Chinese Spring Festival holiday
  • US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure

Monday 23 January

Chinese banks are closed this week to mark the Spring Festival. Otherwise, it’s a quiet start on Monday as far as economic data is concerned, although we still have the fourth quarter earnings season to consider. This afternoon we have Eurozone Consumer Confidence, while from the US we have the Conference Board’s Leading Index. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak at the Deutsche Börse annual reception. Later, we have updates on Australia’s Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Earnings updates include oil services company Baker Hughes [NASDAQ:BKR].


Tuesday 24 January

Overnight we have the NAB Business Confidence survey from Australia, Japan’s Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Bank of Japan’s Core CPI update. Then we have the Swiss Trade Balance, German GfK Consumer Climate survey, and the UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirement. We have Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs from France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and US. These have all been weakening for some time now, and all the numbers are below 50 indicating contraction across both sectors. This is a concern, particularly as this data is considered ‘leading’ and therefore an opinion on what lies ahead. These indicators survey corporate purchasing managers who generally hold the most current and relevant views of the economy. Businesses tend to react quickly to market conditions, so this data is important, and often market moving. There’s also the UK’s CBI Industrial Order Expectations and the Richmond Manufacturing Index from the US. Today’s earnings include 3M [NYSE:MMM], Travelers [NYSE:TIC], Microsoft [NASDAQ:MSFT], Raytheon [NYSE:RTX], Halliburton [NYSE:HAL], Las Vegas Sands [NYSE:LVS], Verizon [NYSE:VZ], DR Horton, Texas Instruments [NASDAQ:TXN], Johnson & Johnson.

Wednesday 25 January

Overnight we have Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Then there’s the UK’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations survey from Switzerland, and the German ifo Business Climate survey. Then we have the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) Rate Decision, Statement and Monetary Policy Report. Like the US Federal Reserve, the BOC began raising rates from 0.25% in March last year, but its headline rate is currently 4.25%, a tad below the Fed’s 4.50% upper bound. From the US we have weekly Crude Oil Inventories. Key earnings reports come from ADP [NASDAQ:ADP], AT&T, Altria [NYSE:MO], Boeing [NYSE:BA], CSX [NASDAQ:CSX] and Tesla [NASDAQ:TSLA].

Thursday 26 January

The day begins with Spanish Unemployment and the UK’s CBI Realised Sales. From the US we have the first look at fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), along with Durable Goods, weekly Unemployment Claims, the Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories and New Home Sales. Today’s top corporate earnings come from Southwest Airlines [NYSE:LUV], JetBlue Airways, Intel [NASDAQ:INTC], Visa [NYSE:V] and Mastercard [NYSE:MA].

Friday 27 January

Overnight we have Australian Import Prices and PPI. From France we have Spanish Flash GDP, and Eurozone Money Supply and Private Loans. From the US we have Personal Spending, Personal Income, Pending Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations. But we cap off the week with the US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation which is Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). As the name suggests, the Core PCE excludes food and energy, and it indicates that the annual rate of inflation has dropped from 5.2% in September to just under 4.7% in November. This is not the dramatic fall that we’ve seen in Headline CPI, but at least it appears to be going in the right direction. Today’s top earnings come from American Express [NYSE:AXP], Chevron [NYSE:CVX] and Colgate-Palmolive [NYSE:CL].

*Earnings calendar subject to change

David Morrison is an Analyst with Trade Nation. Trade Nation was set up with the specific remit to help customers realise their trading goals by changing the way they engage with the financial markets. As well as providing full transparency and making sure all customers get a fair deal, Trade Nation is fully regulated. This means customers can be confident they’re getting the trading experience they deserve. 

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research or consult a professional advisor.

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