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Good morning traders. I´ll keep it short and on point this morning after yesterdays off piste comments.

We didn’t get much action yet again in the eurusd as it stayed within a 15 pip range until around 14.00 CET yesterday when it dropped to make a test of the 1.12 level. It couldn’t actually test the big fig until well into the evening and overnight session which is indicative of a very trapped market. We got a slight bounce during Asia but only up to 1.1210 where it trades as I write this morning.

It is not just very difficult to trade from our model strategy pov, it is tough to scalp even as there is no decent price action to trigger off. A very tough call all around right now.

We should, however, keep in mind the old trading adage that contraction leads to expansion but I wish it would just get a move on!

Consequently we have had no performance results to talk about and unless we get some movement its going to stay that way.

After the USDx made a trip down to test the 97.00 level we were talking about it has since bounced back up the chart to around the 97.50 point. Trade war tensions and where that may be headed is creating uncertainty all around so where it will trade next is anyone’s guess.

For today we do at least have some decent data in the shape of US Retail sales due out this afternoon at 14.30 CET. German GDP is set for 08.00 CET with EZ preliminary GDP at 11.00.

The 240m Chart

Looking at the 4h chart shows how the 1.1250 level has capped recent up moves on closes. We have had a spike up to test the 1.1265 level and a hasty retreat so far. My guess is that the rising wedge we can see will break at the top at some point but it may be a slow grind unless we get a data trigger which is capable of sustained momentum.

Alternatively a break below the 1.12 big fig would open up another test of the major low at 1.1175. In which case we would then need to look at a break below the rising trend line for possible retests from the underside to go short. While we remain trapped here its simply a case of trading the lower time frame charts for scalps.

The 15m Chart

While we are ´stuck´I thought it  might be useful to post the 15m chart this morning to show the scalp levels better.

On the upside look for possible scalps at Monday’s low at around 1.1220 and the Tuesday high of 1.1240 ish.

On the downside keep an eye on the 1.12 big fig for another test as this may give a decent long entry. A better scalp long would be from the 1.1186 ish level last Wednesday and Thursdays low closes. If these don’t hold a test of the major low at 1.1175, last week low close, should provide decent support for a long.

Ok thats a wrap for today – have a good one :).

 

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Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

https://www.markwogan.com

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