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Mark Wogan: Another up day ?

Good morning traders.

The eurusd held above 1.12 yesterday and posted an ATR move up to test the 1.1250s as we were anticipating. While we didn’t get a dip down to the big fig level to go long, if you were at your shorter time frame charts in the morning there was a decent entry long from 1.1215 the top of the previous days spike high.

We then had a good model short entry from R1 at 1.1250 which bottomed out at 1.1225 but I tweeted to take some off at 1.1230 to lock in profit.

So we had 2 good set ups and the opportunity to make 50+ pips. As I only take trades from hourly levels for our model strategy I will count the short as a +20 winner.

Risk was again full on yesterday as the optimism re US China trade talks continued to buoy markets. The USDx held the 97 level and as mentioned, I suspect the NFP data tomorrow will be the catalyst one way or the other.

For today we have German Factory orders out first thing 8.00 CET followed by ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 1.30.

The Daily Chart

A firm green candle followed on from the bullish doji and respected the ATR with a 50 pip push.

Looking at the left hand side on the daily we can see that any move off key support from the beginning of this year has at least given us 4 days positive days. In which case our bias should be to look for a continuation to at least the end of the week. We have NFP to navigate tomorrow but my bias remains long for today.

The Hour Chart

Levels as per.

I´ve moved the R1 up to 1.1280s as we have already tested the 50s and any continuation might be expected to at least test this area on the upside.

One thing to bear in mind here re shorts is that if our bias is to the upside any shorts we take should be managed carefully to ensure we don’t lose out for the sake of holding for a model result of +26.

My recommendation is to book some profit earlier in any short trade for today. S1 is now at 1.1205 to 15 with S2 at the lows.

I will be looking to get long on any dip back into the top of the S1 zone or even a little higher at 20s as indicated on the chart. Also watch out for any move up over yesterdays high and any retest from above to try a long.

Have a good day :).


Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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