Mark Wogan: Change in eurusd fortunes?

Good morning traders.

Just as I write yesterday that movement in the eurusd has been incredibly low of late we get a decent push up from the years low of 1.1111. Just goes to show you have to be on your toes all the time.

There was of course always a good chance of a fade at this low level so we were expecting some push back – especially as the USDx was also at new yearly highs and a bit over due a pullback. More on this next week.

Top Tip: On the point of fading these levels I work on the basis that the ones I pick and especially those at extreme chart break out points are far more likely to be break failures than breakouts. I´d estimate roughly 70%  fail on the first attempt and that’s a good edge for your trading armoury. Forget about break out trading – it just makes you feel depressed that you lose so many times :).

Unfortunately, from our performance pov we took a loss from S1 as it dipped below -13, our model stop. To be honest it was a little careless of me when I posted the levels yesterday as I should have used the year low wick not the body in this case. Can´t get them all right and we are comfortably up for the week in any case so no worries:).

Nothing on the data slate for today. However, EU elections have started and as I have discussed here in the past, the outcome could be significant in where next for the euro.

The Daily Chart

We put in a strong up move yesterday but whether it will result in any significant further move up the chart is less clear. We have seen these moves in the past 9 months or so and they have resulted in very little. So until we see how the week closes out and next weeks price action, we watch how things move, hold opposing scenarios and trade with the levels and the days price action. No point holding a strong bias in this market just yet.

The Hour Chart

Levels as per.

I´ve got S1 back on the body of the move at around 1.1130 and R1 up at 1.1220 in case we get a further push up and some stops are taken at this level.

Good luck for today and have a great weekend.