Mark Wogan: ECB – Nothing to see here move along now!
Good morning traders.
The ECB yesterday stayed pretty much within the bounds of what we already knew. Hence no real impetus on the eurusd up or down the chart. In addition to some clarification of the banks reinvestment plans the only thing of note was that the growth and inflation expectations were slightly downgraded which should in theory weigh on the pair.
However, after a little choppy trading the eurusd closed out at just about where it opened.
So, nothing much to spur us on either way from the ECB yesterday.
In other news, there are reports that Italy are aiming to conclude discussions with the EU by Sunday with regard to the budget deficit issue and PM May failed to get the EU to agree further concessions on the Irish backstop.
For today we have US retail sales out this afternoon which could add a spark one way or the other. I suspect though that the market is waiting until the 19th for the FOMC decision where expectations are that there will be another 25 bps hike.
If you traded the levels yesterday you should have been able to make our model +26 from a long off S1.
The 4H Chart
The 4H chart provides the best summary of where we are re the eurusd. We are in the middle of the triangle range compressing more each day. This will not go on as these patterns lead to expansion so its a matter of time before we expand prices one way or the other.
For now I have no clear feel for direction so we stick to the charts and trade what we see.
The Hourly Chart
The hourly S & R levels are the same as yesterday such was the lacklustre response to the ECB.
OK that´s it for this week.
Have a good day, trade the levels and the lower time frame price action around them and have a great weekend. See you Monday :).