Good morning traders.
The 5th of November. Gunpowder, treason and plot – sounds like an episode of House of Cards.
Will we get any price action fireworks today? I doubt it but before we get onto this week, a quick update on last month.
If you have been following my daily set ups and summary commentary I hope you have been able to end the month on a good positive note.
We kicked off the first week of October with a potential 250 pips or so based on the levels and comments I posted and continued in that vein throughout the rest of the month. However, I need to make an important point here.
I am not trying to make this diary a signal service.
My intention is to provide thinking about how I trade and show the levels I am watching everyday. Its down to you to trade them.
You will win some and lose some as I do but if you watch the price action closely and trade at the levels I post, it should be enough to turn a profit on your trading.
The market will do whatever it wants but moves invariably start and end (and pause, reverse or accelerate) at the levels I post. Of course it depends on your money management and risk methods – but whatever this may be – trading the levels improves your chances.
Take last Friday for example.
I posted that I was watching the 1.14 level for a possible scalp to get long in the morning prior to Non Farm Payrolls. It didn’t set up so no trade.
However, I also posted that I was watching the 1.1450 and 1.1480 levels (along with the big fig 1.15 ) and would trade whatever set ups came along before Non Farm Payrolls. As we didn’t get a pullback to 1.14, the 1.1450 came into focus and gave us a really nice short scalp set up and reversed for the rest of the day .
If you were monitoring this on the lower time frame chart you´d have seen that once it broke through and went 6 pips past our entry it could not trade back above the 1.1450 level. Price was capped at that level on 2 retests on the 5m chart.
It was a typical scalp entry for me. I keep on saying – its all about the levels!!
Anyway – whats on the cards for this week?
The Daily Chart
On the daily we can see that the double bottom at 1.13 is still in play although price was struggling at 1.1450.
We had strong US jobs (which we anticipated ) and some headlines re China trade agreements and Brexit which I suspect kept prices in check at month and week end. This week with FOMC and the mid terms impacting directly on the USD, we’ll likely have a better idea if the bottom is going to stick.
In which case I suspect we will have to hold off on the fireworks for a few days!
The Hourly Chart
To kick off I will be watching the Sunday open and the London open session to get a feel for price action.
The Friday lows at 1.1370s and the 1.1350 levels look decent especially as the latter is just below the 61.8% Fib which comes in at 1.1360ish. I´m no big fan of fibs but when they come in at my levels, they can provide good extra confirmation.
Below there we have the 1.1320ish level and the bottom itself at 1.13.
Any pull back into these levels and I´ll be watching the lower time frame chart for any bounce pattern to trade.
If we move up from the open, 1.14 and 1.1430 look to be the first 2 levels of interest followed by the Friday high at 1.1456.
I´ll be monitoring to see if we get any bounce back patterns. If we break though to the upside, I´ll be looking for retests.
Tip: Dont rush the Monday London session. Let price unfold if you are not comfortable scalping at the kick off. There will be plenty of set ups during the rest of the week- as we have proved every week for the last 6 or so :).