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Mark Wogan: EURUSD – FOMC to set the scene

Good morning traders.

The pair didn’t get much traction post the midterms results. We got a push up to retest 1.15 which I talked about yesterday (also the 61.8% Fib level) but no push higher. The Big Figure is acting as pivotal resistance for now.

Will the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) this evening give us a clearer bigger picture direction?

If Fed language suggests any backtracking vis a vis a continuation of rate hikes, the eurusd will likely get a push up to test 1.15 again and may break higher.

If it’s business as usual from Powell at al later today indicating that December will be ´live´for a hike and more next year, we could see the dollar gaining strength and a back off in our pair.

For what its worth, my view is for the latter but I´ll be trading whatever we get. The levels will still be the same. It’s just the direction of travel that will change.

The Daily Chart

Nothing really to add from recent comment. 1.15 is key and the chart is bearing that out with a pretty indecisive candle yesterday.

The Hourly Chart

We talked about the 1.15 level and how it coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci level – and we can see the result. As soon as it got there it smartly reversed. It pays to take note of levels and Fibs where they coincide at key points!

For today it’s anyone’s guess until the FOMC  this evening. I´ll be watching the levels noted on the hourly and the lower time frame charts for entry patterns and trading accordingly. If I don´t know which way we are going to go – (actually I usually do have a bias but I try to be agnostic) – I simply trade what I see.

Its a Top Tip for longevity in the business.

Trade What you See not What you Think. No point trying to be right, better to be profitable!

Have a good one.

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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