Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Look out below?

Good morning traders.

Yesterday I noted that I was unclear as to the higher time frame direction of the pair and noted some levels to watch for reaction either way. We got reaction at the levels I mentioned.

We sold off from 1.1570’s during the London morning session and there was another chance at 1.1545-50 during the afternoon New York (NY) session. However, while the levels played out, you really needed the lower time frame charts to get a good entry from the price action.

What’s up for today?

I may have been better saying “what’s down for today” because the charts are looking weaker each day. We closed at the 1.15 critical level yesterday on the Daily which suggests we need a solid close back above for today, otherwise it really looks like lower prices are on the cards.

We have a couple of levels on the Daily that I´m watching further down i.e.  1.1430 and the 1.14 big fig as noted on the chart. These look like good targets if we get bearish pa in the LO (London Open) session and may also be good reaction points.

Either way if you are short – take some profit here or if you want to get long watch the pa at these levels on the LTF  charts (lower time frame).

EURUSD Daily Chart

From an hourly chart perspective the levels are pretty clear above and below. 1.1480 looks to be the first key level on the downside then the 1.1450 and the 1.1430.

My kick off premise for the day is to sell rallies so I’ll be looking to get short on any push back up to 1.1520 – 30 and I´ll be watching how price reacts here.

However, we might not get any rally to speak of and a quick break above the Asia session at around 1.1505 -10 might be where we get short. Alternatively another strategy I look for is if price keeps moving down from the open I´ll watch for any move back up to the Asia low of around 1.11490 – 95 for a possible short entry.

As ever – if my short side premise looks wrong from the price action we get – I´ll be quick to switch bias. Got to guard against confirmation bias at all times 🙂

EURUSD Hourly Chart

Have a good one.