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Mark Wogan: Trading is a bit like the Ryder Cup

Good morning traders. Trust you had a great weekend watching the Ryder Cup. Great result for us in Europe – better luck next time guys if you´re from the USA. 

Regarding the golf, one thing that struck me was how working in a team brings the best out of players in a sport which is almost a totally individual pursuit – just like trading. To take the analogy further I would say that if you can find other traders who you can work with on an informal basis, via a shared trade room for example, it will have a beneficial effect on your trading. Sure at the end of the day you are the one who has to take the shots, but being part of team of people can help.

I know from personal experience how isolating trading can be with long hours, days and weeks spent at the chart face with just you and your thoughts to keep you company. Unfortunately, like with golf,  there is no way around it – after all, every trade/shot you take has to come down to your own independent thinking / read of the charts. And to be a successful trader – that’s just how it has to be.

But engaging with other like minded traders can have a tremendous effect on your morale and performance (as long as you choose those individuals wisely).

I ´work´ with guys in my trade room and engage in conversation with a few others I know and trust and know it helps my performance. It helps to be able to bounce a few ideas around and often just to be able to shoot the trading breeze keeps your mind fresh and open to what’s happening on the charts.

So I would encourage you to look for some type of supportive network of other traders as you develop and go on to become a successful pro trader. My trade room is always open if you think a bit of company would help you. Just drop me a line to the email link above.

Anyway, back to the EurUsd charts for this week

From a macro perspective nothing fundamentally has changed over the last couple of weeks. The Fed is continuing its rate hike trajectory and the ECB are still on hold vis-a-vis monetary policy change until next summer. However, we have seen the dip in price I mentioned might happen but not yet to the extend that I would say the potential for a move up to 1.18 and 1.19 has been cancelled out.

Consequently, I will remain on the lookout for long plays providing we don’t get a daily close below 1.15. If this happens I suspect the bears will take hold for a more sustained push down. That’s not to say I wont be looking to play the downside before then if we get bearish price action just that from my read (of the green), it could still go either way.

EURUSD Daily Chart

Looking at the hourly chart we came right down to a level we had already marked (1.1580) and bounced up from there to close Friday back at the 1.16 level. How we open on Sunday and close on Monday will help us get a better feel for the first week of the final quarter.

So (as always) I am open to what price action gives us to start the week. To kick off I will be keeping a close watch on that 1.1580 level. If we come down to test it again and get a strong hourly close above it, I´d be thinking of a move further back up. Open minds and tight stops are the order of the day until the chart becomes clearer.

EURUSD Hourly Chart

Have a great week and remember if you have any questions just ask in the comments section below!

Please note: All opinions expressed above are from the author and not necessarily shared by The Armchair Trader. All financial investments involve an element of risk. The value of your investment may fall as well as rise and you may get back less than your initial investment. With Spread bets and CFDs your losses may exceed your deposits.

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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