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Good morning traders.

As expected yesterday was very quiet in the run up to today´s Fed meeting and press conference later. In fact I was reading somewhere that the range volatility we are getting now in the eurusd is the lowest for more than 10 years. Sorry to be imprecise as I can´t now find the source (it was a tweet but from a reliable source) but the point is clear: the pair in terms of movement is on life support :).

Be that as it may we still managed to bag a few pips from the short from R1. There was a total of 25 pips to be made from shorting the edge of the zone (max move down) and you could have taken the trade more than  once dependent on whether you were at the screen or not. I will count it as a 1:1 model win of +13 pips.

For today there is little to say other than its all about the FOMC tonight which kicks off at 19.00 CET. The consensus is that it will likely set a dovish tone with no hike this month and probably no action of any sort until the second half of the year. The expectation therefore is that the USD may come under a little pressure which may help selected majors such as the eurusd.

That is the meta view from an analysis of the analysts (!). Whether this comes to pass is another matter. We wont know until we hear Powell say it so I´d suggest caution into the event and certainly not to be holding a position in the immediate run up (unless you are medium term swing or position trading).

The USDx is coming into some support around the 96.20s area which is also the measured move target of the previous swing down and trend line support. This could help stem too much further downside in the USDx and curtail up moves in the eurusd.

However, I´m still swaying to a push up in the euro vs the USD because of the technical picture I get from the chart but I will be guided by what the price action  tells me. 

The Daily Chart

There is nothing to add to what I´ve already said the past couple of days re the Daily.

The Hour Chart

As we hardly moved there is no change to the levels and zones I posted yesterday. That said we could get a strong directional move after the FOMC so these zones will have less weight the closer we get to the FOMC. 

Tight lines for today :).



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Mark Wogan

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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