Good morning traders.
Yesterday was all about US Retail Sales and news from the US-China trade talks. The former came in as a big miss on expectations which unnerved traders and triggered a quick move down in US indices and the USD helping the eurusd to push up to test the 1.13 level again. It quickly tapered out though and the euro came back under pressure retracing all of its spike up on the data.
News from the US-China trade discussions that the two sides were “…far away…” from an agreement then hit the wires causing a further dip in risk sentiment. However, we are still running on ´Hopium´ until we get some clear news as to the likely outcome.
Before either of the two above events however, our S & R zones worked perfectly. We first had a push up into our R1 zone which held and promptly sold off right into our S zone before moving back to midway between the two.
The price action couldn´t have been a more precise example of support and resistance working through trader sentiment! See below chart.
For today we should be getting more news on how well or otherwise the trade talks are going with little else on the data slate.
If we get good news from Beijing I´d expect this to hold the USD at these levels and possibly push the eurusd lower. If the news or soundbites don´t look too good the USD could get hit which could trigger an advance in the euro.
NB: nothing has changed in the eurozone so these moves may well be quickly washed out.
The Daily Chart
Its pretty clear where we might be heading should we continue to push down. The first target would be 1.12 and just below at the 61.8 Fib of the last major swing. Below there 1.1130 offers some support.
The Hourly Chart
S & R zones are the same as yesterday at the outset but it will depend on intraday action before any set ups are clear.
Hope you´ve had a good week and remember don´t jump on any poor set ups today – it will only spoil your weekend :).