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Good morning traders.

I did say yesterday that this range in the eurusd has been pretty resilient and so it proved again. Maybe the thin air up above 1.15 was just too much for our range bound single currency!

After meandering for most of the day above our S1 level which incidentally I tweeted and commented that anyone taking it should take profit around the mid 1.1490s, it gave way and came back to the 1.1450 level and fell further over night.  ECB´s Weidmann with his comment that the ECB doesn’t have anything much left in its arsenal should it need room for maneuver didn’t help the upside cause.

On a similar point I read this yesterday from Ambrose Pritchard Evans of the Daily Telegraph which I found very interesting. I copy it here FYI only. It directly relates to his view of Brexit which is not our concern here but his comments also shed light on the ´paucity´of responses left to the ECB should there be a severe financial shock to the system. As I say, fyi.

The upshot of yesterdays move meant we had a -13 loser on the model strategy (I only count straight wins and losses for model performance regardless of whether I personally managed for a profit and/or left a comment in the comments box at the end of this blog or tweeted to anyone to do the same). Our model strategy is a daily ´set and forget´ so it has to be measured as such.

For today we have NFP (non farm payrolls) on the slate for this afternoon so I would be very careful taking any entries before or during the event if you are not able to be at your charts. With this in mind I wont be counting any model performance for today.

So lets take a look at the charts.

The Daily Chart

I´m not sure there is much else I can say about the daily chart than what I have been saying for about 3 months now. We are stuck in this range and until we get a macro impetus strong enough to force it out of its apparent comfort zone, that´s where its going to stay.

While its not a big issue from our trading perspective as we will simply continue to trade the range but it would add a little more interest if we got a push one way or the other. Cést la vie. We trade what we are given.

The Hourly Chart

I have noted some levels for today that I will be looking at for possible short term intraday ´scalps´prior to the NFP data at 13.30 GMT today. As mentioned above I dont advocate anyone has a set and forget strategy for today. Its best to let this week play out and we will be back to normal service Monday.

Have a good day and weekend and I´ll see you all bright and early Monday.

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Mark Wogan

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.


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