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Mark Wogan: Is Spring in the air?

Diary Of A Trader
1. Diary of a Trader w/c 30 April
2. Diary of a Trader – w/c 7 May 2018
3. Diary of a Trader – w/c 14 May 2018
4. Diary of a Trader – w/c 21 May 2018
5. Dabbling with some crowdfunding
6. Diary of a Trader – w/c 6 August 2018
7. Mark Wogan: EURUSD in the week ahead
8. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Tuesday 25th September
9. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Wednesday 26th September
10. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Thursday 27th September
11. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Friday 28th September
12. Mark Wogan: Trading is a bit like the Ryder Cup
13. Mark Wogan: You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!
14. Mark Wogan: Using the 5m chart to take intraday entries
15. Mark Wogan: That Sinking Feeling
16. Mark Wogan: Non Farm Payrolls – Rip, Dip & Split
17. Mark Wogan: A waiting game for bank holidays
18. Mark Wogan: Is trading just a bunch of lines?
19. Mark Wogan: What it’s like to be a professional day trader
20. Mark Wogan: When a plan comes together..
21. Mark Wogan: It pays to take a level headed approach
22. Mark Wogan: EURUSD review – Don´t look back in anger!
23. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Might go up, down, or sideways!
24. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Patience is a virtue
25. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Patience is still the order of the day
26. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Feel the rhythm
27. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Lower time frame action
28. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Non Farm Payrolls Friday
29. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Fireworks on the 5th of November?
30. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Any effect from the Midterms?
31. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – FOMC to set the scene
32. Mark Wogan: FOMC – business as usual
33. Mark Wogan: Watch the levels and let the week unfold
34. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – how low can we go?
35. Mark Wogan: Will turaround Tuesday extend into Wednesday?
36. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – A tricky day to trade given the headline risk
37. Mark Wogan: That Friday Feeling
38. Mark Wogan: Event risk and confidence
39. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – One, two, three…ok lets go
40. Mark Wogan: So much for turnaround Tuesday
41. Mark Wogan: Thanksgiving Thursday
42. Mark Wogan: Its Monday so lets get going
43. Mark Wogan: Is eurusd 1.13 going to hold?
44. Mark Wogan: EURUSD cat and mouse at 1.13
45. Mark Wogan: Is Jerome Powell backing off?
46. Mark Wogan: G20 in focus
47. Mark Wogan: Trump and Xi appear to kiss!
48. Mark Wogan: Today´s eurusd levels and the USDx
49. Mark Wogan: Eurusd struggles in risky headwinds
50. Mark Wogan: Risk is the key
51. Mark Wogan: Whipsaw Friday?
52. Mark Wogan: Support & resistance – a level headed approach
53. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
54. Scott Phillips: Everything you never wanted to know about Trend Days
55. Mark Wogan: Model strategy pays out
56. Mark Wogan: ECB Thursday
57. Scott Phillips: The morning after pill
58. Mark Wogan: ECB – Nothing to see here move along now!
59. Mark Wogan: Monday Market
60. Mark Wogan: Fed under pressure?
61. Mark Wogan: FOMC this evening
62. Mark Wogan: Powell versus Trump – the verdict.
63. Mark Wogan: 2019 and all that
64. Mark Wogan: 2019 – bring it on!
65. Mark Wogan: 1.15 remains intact
66. Mark Wogan: Eurusd remains range bound
67. Mark Wogan: 1.15 – There she blows!
68. Mark Wogan: Eurusd 1.15 holds.
69. Mark Wogan: Eurusd at the crossroads
70. Mark Wogan: Quiet before the storm?
71. Mark Wogan: Eurusd reverses back into comfort zone!
72. Mark Wogan: Range downside to be tested?
73. Which breakouts are the best breakouts to trade
74. Trading Crude – the perfect call
75. Mark Wogan: Tight ranging action.
76. Scott Phillips: The Dumbening
77. Mark Wogan: Eurusd – where next?
78. Mark Wogan: Eurusd continues to test lower prices
79. Mark Wogan: Eurusd range holds awaiting ECB tomorrow
80. Mark Wogan: ECB Match Day!
81. Mark Wogan: Eurusd back up the chart!
82. Mark Wogan: keep an eye on the daily level of 1.1465
83. Mark Wogan: Eurusd and the FOMC
84. Mark Wogan: Post FOMC eurusd
85. Mark Wogan: Home on the range!
86. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
87. Mark wogan: Turnaround Tuesday anyone?
88. Mark Wogan: The long grind south
89. Mark Wogan: The long trek south
90. Mark Wogan: Action at last
91. Mark Wogan: Monday!
92. Mark Wogan: Tuesday – turnaround anyone?
93. Mark Wogan: Which way Wednesday?
94. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Support & Resistance zones
95. Mark Wogan: Friday’s EURUSD outlook
96. Mark Wogan: Eurusd on Monday 18.02.19
97. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Tuesday 19. 02. 19
98. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Wednesday 20.02.19
99. Mark Wogan: Thursday´s chart has far to go?
100. Mark Wogan: Talking Heads Friday
101. Mark Wogan: It´s Monday, 3…2…1…
102. Scott Phillips: What are the least reliable patterns in Technical Analysis?
103. Mark Wogan: Powell Testimony Tuesday!
104. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Weds 27. 02. 19
105. Mark Wogan: Eurusd – Steady as she goes!
106. Mark Wogan: New month – same Eurusd?
107. Mark Wogan: USD too strong – says Trump
108. Scott Phillips: When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir?
109. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday ?
110. Mark Wogan: The ECB Awaits
111. Mark Wogan: ECB – Will they unlock some volatility?
112. Mark Wogan: Back in the chair – ready to go!
113. Mark Wogan: Intraday ´scalping´.
114. Mark Wogan: FOMC
115. Mark Wogan: Movement at last.
116. Mark Wogan: Well that didn’t last long !
117. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
118. Mark Wogan: Tuesday 26 03 19
119. Mark Wogan: Which way Wednesday?
120. Mark Wogan: Quarter end flows
121. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
122. Mark Wogan: Is Spring in the air?
123. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
124. Mark Wogan: Rally anyone?
125. Mark Wogan: Another up day ?
126. Mark Wogan: Non Farm Friday
127. Mark Wogan: Heads Up – ECB Week
128. Mark Wogan: Are we going higher?
129. Mark Wogan: ECB – ´Nuff said !
130. Mark Wogan: Post match analysis
131. Mark Wogan: The weekend beckons.
132. Mark Wogan: The Week ahead for eurusd
133. How to avoid losses on counter trend trades
134. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Tuesday 16 4 19
135. Scott Phillips: The Counter Punch Method
136. Mark Wogan: The slow grind continues
137. Mark Wogan: Trading the Eurusd – It’s a heavy cross to bear!
138. Mark Wogan: Time to roll the dice again
139. Scott Phillips: How to identify an IDEAL setup
140. Mark Wogan: Look out below ?
141. Mark Wogan: Has the gate opened to 1.10?
142. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – the week ahead
143. Scott Phillips: The dramatic significance of all time highs in the stock market
144. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
145. Mark Wogan: May already !
146. Mark Wogan: FOMC outtakes.
147. Mark Wogan: May NFP
148. Mark Wogan: Tues. 07 05 19
149. Mark Wogan: Risk under pressure
150. Mark Wogan: Waiting for something to happen!
151. Mark Wogan: Tariffs Away !
152. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – the Week ahead
153. Mark Wogan: Shots fired (back)!
154. Mark Wogan: Wednesday´s wish list
155. Mark Wogan: Eurusd stuck at 1.12
156. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
157. Mark Wogan: EURUSD Morning briefing
158. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday anyone ?
159. Mark Wogan: FOMC minutes in focus
160. Mark Wogan: Where next?
161. Mark Wogan: Change in eurusd fortunes?
162. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
163. Mark Wogan: Wednesday 29 05 19
164. Mark Wogan: TGIF
165. Mark Wogan: June already ?
166. Mark Wogan: Eurusd rises overnight
167. Mark Wogan: Eurusd awaits the ECB
168. Mark Wogan: ECB – post match analysis.
169. Mark Wogan: Monday Eurusd charts
170. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday ?
171. Mark Wogan: Thursday´s Tariffs
172. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
173. Scott Phillips: S&P500 Short Opportunity
174. Mark Wogan: All eyes on Wednesday´s FOMC.
175. Mark Wogan. All eyes on FOMC later.
176. Mark Wogan: Powell holds his ground – for now
177. Mark Wogan: The Week ahead for Eurusd
178. Mark Wogan: Easing as she goes!
179. Mark Wogan: Eurusd, summer and me

Good morning traders. Hope you all had a good weekend.

As we start the new quarter its worth a quick look at where we are re the macro environment and its relevance to the euro and more specifically from our pov to the eurusd.

The Macro View

First up is the eurozone economy itself. During the last few months the overriding issue has been the apparent general slow down in growth (or increase in growth concerns to be more precise). We have had a series of poor data prints from PMIs to CPI data particularly out of Germany which have skewed the view on risk to the downside across the EU.

Consequently we have had Draghi and the ECB on the wires and via policy extolling a cautious tone and pushing any guidance on possible rate hikes out into next year from their earlier stance at the end of this summer. We also had Italy in a technical recession and political worries in France via the gilet jaunes.

But more recently we have seen German Ifo confidence print better than expected, German unemployment at its best level for years and Italian yields holding up well. I can´t really comment on where we are at re France and the recent protests but it does seem eurozone economic concerns could be basing. Perhaps Spring is in the air not just seasonally but for the eurozone as well?

Next up we can’t forget Brexit – we will never forget Brexit :). How this is finally resolved may now be further away that ever if a long extension is the result of this latest round of political machinations. It has certainly created a cloud over the the EU economy.

While there is still a chance of a no deal outcome which would be highly negative for the euro, my guess is a long extension or the slim possibility of May’s deal being accepted. On the other hand we could be moving to a general election and a Labour government. How this will play out on the euro is anyone’s guess.

This quarter should at least give us a better picture of the time frame for resolution whatever that may be. Once we have this, it will provide at least some clarity for the eurozone economy and the euro.

US China trade talks are ongoing with Beijing heading to Washington this week to continue where they left off last Friday. Last week’s post meeting out-takes and headlines continued the theme that we could get a positive outcome which will help to defuse trade tensions and boost global economic confidence. There still appear to be some barriers to overcome but I doubt the White House wants anything other than a ´successful´result. We should get resolution this quarter hopefully, sooner than later.

Add this to the just published China manufacturing PMIs which showed a decisive beat on expectations (both the Caixin and State data) and we could be seeing concerns re China’s economy receding.

We have also had the tom toms talking up a recession via the inverting / inverted US yield curve. But as far as I can tell there appears to be two sides to this story.

On the one hand we have analysts saying that such an event has always been a precursor to recession. But there are others who down play this. I won´t go into the detail but the discussion now seems to be whether this particular event is being over played.

We know that there are always perma bears who look for anything to encourage their world view just as there are eternal optimists.  From my stand point it looks to me that the US economy is in pretty good shape and US equities don´t look like heading decisively south right now (gapped up last night). Today’s retail sales data out of the US will be important regarding this story.

In summary, we have Europe possibly showing some green shoots of tentative recovery, US China trade talks continuing with the media not seemingly looking to the downside of the resulting outcome, Brexit nearing some type of major inflection point and China printing decent data. Is Spring in the air for the global economy?

These are just my musings and it’s a complex world in which we live so anything can and will happen. But my take right now is that there are a number of things adding to the asset side of the register rather than to the liabilities column.

In which case we could see risk taking hold, recessionary threats softening and perhaps a weaker dollar.

Barring any black swans or the fact that I´m simply stone cold wrong (a distinct possibility :)) such a scenario could help boost the eurusd. Time will tell as the old (and incredibly useless from our pov) adage has it!

Moving on… I have updated the model performance here. Not a great month by any stretch but hopefully we will get back to some better results is month.

For today we have US retail sales and ISM manufacturing PMIs out this afternoon.

The Weekly Chart

While we are talking about the bigger picture, it’s worth a look at the weekly chart for a change.

As you can see we have followed up the bearish doji with another solid down move last week. As I said last week we could be looking to form a slightly lower range in the eurusd from a chart perspective. But we didn´t take out the 1.1175 low or the 1.12 level.

Maybe this is a sign of some up move to come as per the above macro comments. From a technical pov though, it doesn’t look good and we have the void I mentioned last week lower down the chart. So technically we could be looking lower. Mixed view here so what do we do? We do what we see and what the chart tells us. If anything from above starts to gain traction we should head a little higher at the outset of the month. If not, the downside looks favourite.

The Hour Chart

Levels and zones as per.

We held the Friday lows overnight as we kicked off the week as equities gapped up in Europe and the US. I will be looking at the price action as we start the regular hours trading session this morning and in particular how we react at the 12.50s and 80s. Pushing up and and through I´ll be looking for retests to get long in the first instance. Should we reverse from the open I´ll be looking at Fridays lows initially as a stop run.

I have placed S1 and R1 a bit further out from where I might normally be looking for a reaction for the purposes of improving the outcome of our model performance but I would recommend watching 12.50 and 80 on the upside and 12.00 (near enough Friday lows) and trading accordingly if you are able to be at your charts.

Looking forward to this week as I have a feeling it could be instrumental in how we go forward.

Have a good one and at all times watch your risk but don´t forget to engage :).

Mark Wogan

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

https://www.markwogan.com

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