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Mark Wogan: Look out below ?

Diary Of A Trader
1. Diary of a Trader w/c 30 April
2. Diary of a Trader – w/c 7 May 2018
3. Diary of a Trader – w/c 14 May 2018
4. Diary of a Trader – w/c 21 May 2018
5. Dabbling with some crowdfunding
6. Diary of a Trader – w/c 6 August 2018
7. Mark Wogan: EURUSD in the week ahead
8. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Tuesday 25th September
9. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Wednesday 26th September
10. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Thursday 27th September
11. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Friday 28th September
12. Mark Wogan: Trading is a bit like the Ryder Cup
13. Mark Wogan: You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!
14. Mark Wogan: Using the 5m chart to take intraday entries
15. Mark Wogan: That Sinking Feeling
16. Mark Wogan: Non Farm Payrolls – Rip, Dip & Split
17. Mark Wogan: A waiting game for bank holidays
18. Mark Wogan: Is trading just a bunch of lines?
19. Mark Wogan: What it’s like to be a professional day trader
20. Mark Wogan: When a plan comes together..
21. Mark Wogan: It pays to take a level headed approach
22. Mark Wogan: EURUSD review – Don´t look back in anger!
23. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Might go up, down, or sideways!
24. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Patience is a virtue
25. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Patience is still the order of the day
26. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Feel the rhythm
27. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Lower time frame action
28. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Non Farm Payrolls Friday
29. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Fireworks on the 5th of November?
30. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Any effect from the Midterms?
31. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – FOMC to set the scene
32. Mark Wogan: FOMC – business as usual
33. Mark Wogan: Watch the levels and let the week unfold
34. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – how low can we go?
35. Mark Wogan: Will turaround Tuesday extend into Wednesday?
36. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – A tricky day to trade given the headline risk
37. Mark Wogan: That Friday Feeling
38. Mark Wogan: Event risk and confidence
39. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – One, two, three…ok lets go
40. Mark Wogan: So much for turnaround Tuesday
41. Mark Wogan: Thanksgiving Thursday
42. Mark Wogan: Its Monday so lets get going
43. Mark Wogan: Is eurusd 1.13 going to hold?
44. Mark Wogan: EURUSD cat and mouse at 1.13
45. Mark Wogan: Is Jerome Powell backing off?
46. Mark Wogan: G20 in focus
47. Mark Wogan: Trump and Xi appear to kiss!
48. Mark Wogan: Today´s eurusd levels and the USDx
49. Mark Wogan: Eurusd struggles in risky headwinds
50. Mark Wogan: Risk is the key
51. Mark Wogan: Whipsaw Friday?
52. Mark Wogan: Support & resistance – a level headed approach
53. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
54. Scott Phillips: Everything you never wanted to know about Trend Days
55. Mark Wogan: Model strategy pays out
56. Mark Wogan: ECB Thursday
57. Scott Phillips: The morning after pill
58. Mark Wogan: ECB – Nothing to see here move along now!
59. Mark Wogan: Monday Market
60. Mark Wogan: Fed under pressure?
61. Mark Wogan: FOMC this evening
62. Mark Wogan: Powell versus Trump – the verdict.
63. Mark Wogan: 2019 and all that
64. Mark Wogan: 2019 – bring it on!
65. Mark Wogan: 1.15 remains intact
66. Mark Wogan: Eurusd remains range bound
67. Mark Wogan: 1.15 – There she blows!
68. Mark Wogan: Eurusd 1.15 holds.
69. Mark Wogan: Eurusd at the crossroads
70. Mark Wogan: Quiet before the storm?
71. Mark Wogan: Eurusd reverses back into comfort zone!
72. Mark Wogan: Range downside to be tested?
73. Which breakouts are the best breakouts to trade
74. Trading Crude – the perfect call
75. Mark Wogan: Tight ranging action.
76. Scott Phillips: The Dumbening
77. Mark Wogan: Eurusd – where next?
78. Mark Wogan: Eurusd continues to test lower prices
79. Mark Wogan: Eurusd range holds awaiting ECB tomorrow
80. Mark Wogan: ECB Match Day!
81. Mark Wogan: Eurusd back up the chart!
82. Mark Wogan: keep an eye on the daily level of 1.1465
83. Mark Wogan: Eurusd and the FOMC
84. Mark Wogan: Post FOMC eurusd
85. Mark Wogan: Home on the range!
86. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
87. Mark wogan: Turnaround Tuesday anyone?
88. Mark Wogan: The long grind south
89. Mark Wogan: The long trek south
90. Mark Wogan: Action at last
91. Mark Wogan: Monday!
92. Mark Wogan: Tuesday – turnaround anyone?
93. Mark Wogan: Which way Wednesday?
94. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Support & Resistance zones
95. Mark Wogan: Friday’s EURUSD outlook
96. Mark Wogan: Eurusd on Monday 18.02.19
97. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Tuesday 19. 02. 19
98. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Wednesday 20.02.19
99. Mark Wogan: Thursday´s chart has far to go?
100. Mark Wogan: Talking Heads Friday
101. Mark Wogan: It´s Monday, 3…2…1…
102. Scott Phillips: What are the least reliable patterns in Technical Analysis?
103. Mark Wogan: Powell Testimony Tuesday!
104. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Weds 27. 02. 19
105. Mark Wogan: Eurusd – Steady as she goes!
106. Mark Wogan: New month – same Eurusd?
107. Mark Wogan: USD too strong – says Trump
108. Scott Phillips: When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir?
109. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday ?
110. Mark Wogan: The ECB Awaits
111. Mark Wogan: ECB – Will they unlock some volatility?
112. Mark Wogan: Back in the chair – ready to go!
113. Mark Wogan: Intraday ´scalping´.
114. Mark Wogan: FOMC
115. Mark Wogan: Movement at last.
116. Mark Wogan: Well that didn’t last long !
117. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
118. Mark Wogan: Tuesday 26 03 19
119. Mark Wogan: Which way Wednesday?
120. Mark Wogan: Quarter end flows
121. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
122. Mark Wogan: Is Spring in the air?
123. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
124. Mark Wogan: Rally anyone?
125. Mark Wogan: Another up day ?
126. Mark Wogan: Non Farm Friday
127. Mark Wogan: Heads Up – ECB Week
128. Mark Wogan: Are we going higher?
129. Mark Wogan: ECB – ´Nuff said !
130. Mark Wogan: Post match analysis
131. Mark Wogan: The weekend beckons.
132. Mark Wogan: The Week ahead for eurusd
133. How to avoid losses on counter trend trades
134. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Tuesday 16 4 19
135. Scott Phillips: The Counter Punch Method
136. Mark Wogan: The slow grind continues
137. Mark Wogan: Trading the Eurusd – It’s a heavy cross to bear!
138. Mark Wogan: Time to roll the dice again
139. Scott Phillips: How to identify an IDEAL setup
140. Mark Wogan: Look out below ?
141. Mark Wogan: Has the gate opened to 1.10?
142. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – the week ahead
143. Scott Phillips: The dramatic significance of all time highs in the stock market
144. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
145. Mark Wogan: May already !
146. Mark Wogan: FOMC outtakes.
147. Mark Wogan: May NFP
148. Mark Wogan: Tues. 07 05 19
149. Mark Wogan: Risk under pressure
150. Mark Wogan: Waiting for something to happen!
151. Mark Wogan: Tariffs Away !
152. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – the Week ahead
153. Mark Wogan: Shots fired (back)!
154. Mark Wogan: Wednesday´s wish list
155. Mark Wogan: Eurusd stuck at 1.12
156. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
157. Mark Wogan: EURUSD Morning briefing
158. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday anyone ?
159. Mark Wogan: FOMC minutes in focus
160. Mark Wogan: Where next?
161. Mark Wogan: Change in eurusd fortunes?
162. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
163. Mark Wogan: Wednesday 29 05 19
164. Mark Wogan: TGIF
165. Mark Wogan: June already ?
166. Mark Wogan: Eurusd rises overnight
167. Mark Wogan: Eurusd awaits the ECB
168. Mark Wogan: ECB – post match analysis.
169. Mark Wogan: Monday Eurusd charts
170. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday ?
171. Mark Wogan: Thursday´s Tariffs
172. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
173. Scott Phillips: S&P500 Short Opportunity
174. Mark Wogan: All eyes on Wednesday´s FOMC.
175. Mark Wogan. All eyes on FOMC later.
176. Mark Wogan: Powell holds his ground – for now
177. Mark Wogan: The Week ahead for Eurusd
178. Mark Wogan: Easing as she goes!
179. Mark Wogan: Eurusd, summer and me

Good morning traders.

We had some decent movement in our pair yesterday which was welcome – although we are still at sub 50 ATR on the daily.  After giving us a couple of good scalp entries initially below and then above the Asia range during the morning we then traded down for the rest of the session. We looked to be on course for a test of the 1.1175s low before it turned back up from 1.1190.

It would have been useful for us if the 75s had been broken because it might have given us some conviction that it wanted higher or lower as its become somewhat of a barrier to moves. We may get another test today.

From our results pov the two scalp entries were good opportunities to make +15 on the first and at least a model result of +26 on the latter. In fact had you taken the second ´scalp´trade there was a potential for 50 plus as it gathered speed to the downside.

My method on scalps is to take some off the table at around +10 move stops to BE and let the trade run out either way. I am not one who advocates sitting in a trade until target or initial stops are tagged. It just doesn’t make sense to me as a ´scalper´ but each to their own and I am not advocating one method is better than the other. It´s just how I do it which works for me.

From a model strategy pov we had a loss of -13 as S1 didn’t hold.

Macro Update

On the macro front one interesting piece of information I picked up yesterday might have an effect in future on the eurusd. It seems that as part of the China US trade deal, China is to be restricted in buying FX to limit the appreciation of the yuan. In which case it may depress buying of the euro which if significant (and true) may open the gate to lower eurusd prices. I will try and dig into this further and keep you posted.

We also had a push on ATHs in the US equities space. Nasdaq posted new record highs. We also printed new yearly highs on the USDx.

For today there is little on the data slate other than German IFO data out at 10.00 CET.

The Daily Chart

As we look to be setting up for a test lower its helpful to take a look at a more compressed Daily chart to remind ourselves of what lower looks like. We have the void I have mentioned in the past with not much structure below the 1.1175s until we get to 1.10.

Once through 1.11 we have no structure at all on the Daily time frame. Also remember we have quite a bit of confluence at the 1.1175s with month and week levels and the 61.8 Fib of the major swing. If it takes  this level we could be in for a quick drop to the 1.10s. Apologies for the ´messy´looking chart but I need to compress the view se we can see whats happening.

The Hour Chart

Levels as per.

I have made the 1.1175s the S1 low zone for today but if you can I would actively manage this as a quick push to trigger stops below could take out our model stops in sharp order. We have some decent H1 structure to trigger scalp trades above the current 1.1214 price as I write. Watch for a test of the 1.1225s initially and the 1.1245s.

Again apologies for the compressed chart but we have to see where we are in relation to the bigger picture.

Have a good one amigos :).

 

 

 

Mark Wogan

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

https://www.markwogan.com

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