Good morning traders.
It´s May already – jeez – tempus fugit or what.
We had a decent day yesterday with a +26 model winner from R1. I tweeted about it to take some off at the 1.12 big fig just in case as it was last day of the month etc. It proved to be a timely tweet :).
The one thing you will get to know about the eurusd if you trade it long enough (remember what I said yesterday about focusing on one or two pairs only) is that once it gets on a roll due to decent data it doesn’t like giving up its gains. Not always, sure, but in general I am very careful of fading rallies when there is a significant reason behind it.
Yesterday we had some much better than expected CPIs from Germany and beats on GDP which got everyone feeling more love for the pair. Especially as the USD is somewhat extended up here at the 98.00s level. . There are times when it just wont turn no matter what. One of its idiosyncrasies.
For today we have FOMC which could change everything again. If we have a dovish tone I suspect the USD will take another leg down but I´m cautious as this dollar rally seems to have legs to me. The US economy is outstripping everywhere in terms of pace and scale so we need to be careful of fading it just yet.
Germany France and Italy are on May Day holiday today so things could be quiet until this evening when Powell fires up the mic.
The Daily Chart
The move up yesterday took us just past the 50% Fib of the swing. apart from that there’s not much to add to what I said yesterday.
The Hour Chart
Levels as per.
Due to today´s holiday it might be a quiet session. Later we have the FOMC and before that at 16.00 CET US ISM manufacturing PMI. The levels noted for today are good up to the FOMC but I would be careful with the event news as we could get some sizable moves.
Its my impression that many are looking for a Dovish Fed tone and Trump was on the wires yesterday calling for a ” like a 1 point cut” to send the US economy to the moon. What he means of course is the stock markets not the economy and its only for political re-electioneering rather for for any prudent economic management. So we will see how Powell and his buddies respond in their statement and presser.
I´m having a day off (well a morning off at least) to play a poor round of golf. Hope your shots will be better than mine :).
Have a good one amigos.