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Mark Wogan: Risk is the key

Good morning traders.

Yesterday was looking like an uneventful day – until the Canadian rate news hit. That seemed to be the trigger for a fast dump lower in all the majors against the greenback.

I mentioned I didn´t have a clear read on the levels yesterday and as such it was a quiet day for me. A couple of scalps and that was that. I was lucky not to get caught by that dump. I had taken a long scalp off of the R1 which had turned into support as the price action evolved and I had closed half and had stops at break even just in time.

I´ll take a bit of good fortune any time.

Overnight we had a fast move down at the open in the US equities futures market.

There are some suggestions that Canada arresting Huawei’s CFO at the request of US authorities may have been the catalyst. On the other hand we have had the Chinese authorities just out this morning stating that whatever was agreed at the G20 will be immediately implemented. Will these positive comments switch risk to on? Keep a cautious watch.

So what’s on the cards for today.

The 4 Hour Chart

In a slight change to normal service I thought I´d take a look at the H4 chart today as we have a pattern that merits attention.

You´ll see from the chart that we have a triangle formation bounding the lower highs and the higher lows. Keep a close eye on this as a break above or below could be instrumental in what comes next.

A break out on top with a H4 close and a retest and we might get some follow through in the head and shoulders we have been watching on the Daily. A break below with a similar H4 close and retest and look out for 1.1250, 1.12 and 1.1180 the 61.8% Fib again and maybe lower.

My view is that its still about risk and USD safe haven flows. Risk on and we go higher. Risk off and its lower.

The Hourly Chart

S & R levels noted. If we get any extended move in either direction watch out for support becoming resistance and vice versa. It´s just a gut feeling but the market feels spooked and we could get some pretty big moves unfolding. Of course I could be wrong but a little extra care is never a bad thing.

Have a good one.

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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