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Mark Wogan: Support & resistance – a level headed approach

Diary Of A Trader
1. Diary of a Trader w/c 30 April
2. Diary of a Trader – w/c 7 May 2018
3. Diary of a Trader – w/c 14 May 2018
4. Diary of a Trader – w/c 21 May 2018
5. Dabbling with some crowdfunding
6. Diary of a Trader – w/c 6 August 2018
7. Mark Wogan: EURUSD in the week ahead
8. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Tuesday 25th September
9. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Wednesday 26th September
10. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Thursday 27th September
11. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Friday 28th September
12. Mark Wogan: Trading is a bit like the Ryder Cup
13. Mark Wogan: You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!
14. Mark Wogan: Using the 5m chart to take intraday entries
15. Mark Wogan: That Sinking Feeling
16. Mark Wogan: Non Farm Payrolls – Rip, Dip & Split
17. Mark Wogan: A waiting game for bank holidays
18. Mark Wogan: Is trading just a bunch of lines?
19. Mark Wogan: What it’s like to be a professional day trader
20. Mark Wogan: When a plan comes together..
21. Mark Wogan: It pays to take a level headed approach
22. Mark Wogan: EURUSD review – Don´t look back in anger!
23. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Might go up, down, or sideways!
24. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Patience is a virtue
25. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Patience is still the order of the day
26. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Feel the rhythm
27. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Lower time frame action
28. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Non Farm Payrolls Friday
29. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Fireworks on the 5th of November?
30. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Any effect from the Midterms?
31. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – FOMC to set the scene
32. Mark Wogan: FOMC – business as usual
33. Mark Wogan: Watch the levels and let the week unfold
34. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – how low can we go?
35. Mark Wogan: Will turaround Tuesday extend into Wednesday?
36. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – A tricky day to trade given the headline risk
37. Mark Wogan: That Friday Feeling
38. Mark Wogan: Event risk and confidence
39. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – One, two, three…ok lets go
40. Mark Wogan: So much for turnaround Tuesday
41. Mark Wogan: Thanksgiving Thursday
42. Mark Wogan: Its Monday so lets get going
43. Mark Wogan: Is eurusd 1.13 going to hold?
44. Mark Wogan: EURUSD cat and mouse at 1.13
45. Mark Wogan: Is Jerome Powell backing off?
46. Mark Wogan: G20 in focus
47. Mark Wogan: Trump and Xi appear to kiss!
48. Mark Wogan: Today´s eurusd levels and the USDx
49. Mark Wogan: Eurusd struggles in risky headwinds
50. Mark Wogan: Risk is the key
51. Mark Wogan: Whipsaw Friday?
52. Mark Wogan: Support & resistance – a level headed approach
53. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
54. Scott Phillips: Everything you never wanted to know about Trend Days
55. Mark Wogan: Model strategy pays out
56. Mark Wogan: ECB Thursday
57. Scott Phillips: The morning after pill
58. Mark Wogan: ECB – Nothing to see here move along now!
59. Mark Wogan: Monday Market
60. Mark Wogan: Fed under pressure?
61. Mark Wogan: FOMC this evening
62. Mark Wogan: Powell versus Trump – the verdict.
63. Mark Wogan: 2019 and all that
64. Mark Wogan: 2019 – bring it on!
65. Mark Wogan: 1.15 remains intact
66. Mark Wogan: Eurusd remains range bound
67. Mark Wogan: 1.15 – There she blows!
68. Mark Wogan: Eurusd 1.15 holds.
69. Mark Wogan: Eurusd at the crossroads
70. Mark Wogan: Quiet before the storm?
71. Mark Wogan: Eurusd reverses back into comfort zone!
72. Mark Wogan: Range downside to be tested?
73. Which breakouts are the best breakouts to trade
74. Trading Crude – the perfect call
75. Mark Wogan: Tight ranging action.
76. Scott Phillips: The Dumbening
77. Mark Wogan: Eurusd – where next?
78. Mark Wogan: Eurusd continues to test lower prices
79. Mark Wogan: Eurusd range holds awaiting ECB tomorrow
80. Mark Wogan: ECB Match Day!
81. Mark Wogan: Eurusd back up the chart!
82. Mark Wogan: keep an eye on the daily level of 1.1465
83. Mark Wogan: Eurusd and the FOMC
84. Mark Wogan: Post FOMC eurusd
85. Mark Wogan: Home on the range!
86. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
87. Mark wogan: Turnaround Tuesday anyone?
88. Mark Wogan: The long grind south
89. Mark Wogan: The long trek south
90. Mark Wogan: Action at last
91. Mark Wogan: Monday!
92. Mark Wogan: Tuesday – turnaround anyone?
93. Mark Wogan: Which way Wednesday?
94. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Support & Resistance zones
95. Mark Wogan: Friday’s EURUSD outlook
96. Mark Wogan: Eurusd on Monday 18.02.19
97. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Tuesday 19. 02. 19
98. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Wednesday 20.02.19
99. Mark Wogan: Thursday´s chart has far to go?
100. Mark Wogan: Talking Heads Friday
101. Mark Wogan: It´s Monday, 3…2…1…
102. Scott Phillips: What are the least reliable patterns in Technical Analysis?
103. Mark Wogan: Powell Testimony Tuesday!
104. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Weds 27. 02. 19
105. Mark Wogan: Eurusd – Steady as she goes!
106. Mark Wogan: New month – same Eurusd?
107. Mark Wogan: USD too strong – says Trump
108. Scott Phillips: When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir?
109. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday ?
110. Mark Wogan: The ECB Awaits
111. Mark Wogan: ECB – Will they unlock some volatility?
112. Mark Wogan: Back in the chair – ready to go!
113. Mark Wogan: Intraday ´scalping´.
114. Mark Wogan: FOMC
115. Mark Wogan: Movement at last.
116. Mark Wogan: Well that didn’t last long !
117. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
118. Mark Wogan: Tuesday 26 03 19
119. Mark Wogan: Which way Wednesday?
120. Mark Wogan: Quarter end flows
121. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
122. Mark Wogan: Is Spring in the air?
123. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
124. Mark Wogan: Rally anyone?
125. Mark Wogan: Another up day ?
126. Mark Wogan: Non Farm Friday
127. Mark Wogan: Heads Up – ECB Week
128. Mark Wogan: Are we going higher?
129. Mark Wogan: ECB – ´Nuff said !
130. Mark Wogan: Post match analysis
131. Mark Wogan: The weekend beckons.
132. Mark Wogan: The Week ahead for eurusd
133. How to avoid losses on counter trend trades
134. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Tuesday 16 4 19
135. Scott Phillips: The Counter Punch Method
136. Mark Wogan: The slow grind continues
137. Mark Wogan: Trading the Eurusd – It’s a heavy cross to bear!
138. Mark Wogan: Time to roll the dice again
139. Scott Phillips: How to identify an IDEAL setup
140. Mark Wogan: Look out below ?
141. Mark Wogan: Has the gate opened to 1.10?
142. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – the week ahead
143. Scott Phillips: The dramatic significance of all time highs in the stock market
144. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
145. Mark Wogan: May already !
146. Mark Wogan: FOMC outtakes.
147. Mark Wogan: May NFP
148. Mark Wogan: Tues. 07 05 19
149. Mark Wogan: Risk under pressure
150. Mark Wogan: Waiting for something to happen!
151. Mark Wogan: Tariffs Away !
152. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – the Week ahead
153. Mark Wogan: Shots fired (back)!
154. Mark Wogan: Wednesday´s wish list
155. Mark Wogan: Eurusd stuck at 1.12
156. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
157. Mark Wogan: EURUSD Morning briefing
158. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday anyone ?
159. Mark Wogan: FOMC minutes in focus
160. Mark Wogan: Where next?
161. Mark Wogan: Change in eurusd fortunes?
162. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
163. Mark Wogan: Wednesday 29 05 19
164. Mark Wogan: TGIF
165. Mark Wogan: June already ?
166. Mark Wogan: Eurusd rises overnight
167. Mark Wogan: Eurusd awaits the ECB
168. Mark Wogan: ECB – post match analysis.
169. Mark Wogan: Monday Eurusd charts
170. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday ?
171. Mark Wogan: Thursday´s Tariffs
172. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
173. Scott Phillips: S&P500 Short Opportunity
174. Mark Wogan: All eyes on Wednesday´s FOMC.
175. Mark Wogan. All eyes on FOMC later.
176. Mark Wogan: Powell holds his ground – for now
177. Mark Wogan: The Week ahead for Eurusd
178. Mark Wogan: Easing as she goes!
179. Mark Wogan: Eurusd, summer and me

Good morning traders. I trust you all had a great weekend.

Before we get into today’s S & R levels and my take on the bigger picture I want to give you an update on how well the levels I post each day work or if indeed they work at all.

As with every aspect of trading, there is always a great deal of debate about how to trade; what strategies work and which don´t, when and what to trade, what risk management criteria you should apply, how you should measure performance etc.  The list of topics is endless. Probably the only issue that is not up for debate is that there are many ways to skin the proverbial cat.

In which case I´m not going to get into the detail of exactly what you should do or how, but I do want to show that using the levels I post should give you a good guide to developing a strategy that will bring you success as a trader.

A Level Headed Strategy

I have a set strategy that is very specific to how and when I trade my levels. But I know there are many readers who are not in a position to trade full time as I do. In which case I´m not going to be prescriptive, suffice to say that you should be trading these levels with some form of strategy that works for you.

Consequently, I have done some quick analysis based on the days when I have specifically posted 1 to 3 S & R levels i. e. from from the 14th November to the 7th December.

From a basic eyeball analysis of the charts, you should be able to see that these levels are where the market moves to and or from. They are reaction points/levels in the charts. Therefore it makes sense for you to be focusing your trades at these points as they have a good chance of making you money.

That´s not because I posses any unusual level of trading foresight or predictive capability, its just that markets at the basic level, move from support and resistance.

I´m not going to get into why – other than to say that day traders look for and hunt down liquidity. Why this happens is for another day.

What is important and probably the only thing that matters is that this happens time and time again enabling us to use this ´predictability´to focus our attention on where we want to take trades.

All well and good you might say but how can I develop a strategy around these levels that gives me a consistent positive return on my investment. So what I´ve done is to create a few simple rules as follows:

Rules

  • I take the first level that´s ´hit´either S or R each day and  fade the level (long from support, short from resistance)
  • I use a 13 pip stop (mine is 10 but I´ve increased it slightly to account for a wider spread)
  • If I lose the first trade, I will trade the next level.
  • If I lose the second trade I stop for the day.
  • When my level holds I let it run aiming for at least 2x my risk (i.e. 26 pips)

Results

Based on this simple plan of action the following results were achieved.

  • total no of trading days = 18
  • total no of winning days = 10
  • total no of losing days = 6
  • total no of days no trades set up = 2
  • total pips won = 260
  • total pips lost = 130
  • total positive return in pips = 130

As you can see, simply using a straightforward ´automatic´ approach as above with no trade management other than what the rules allow, delivers a winning strategy.

Of course this is just a small sample set and not a statistically rigorous analysis but what I´m trying to show you is that even with a simple approach, levels work.

If you have time to manage your trades during the day on the lower time frame charts as the price action unfolds you can achieve much better results.

For example, managing your winning trades without automatically cutting at +26 you could have made net 435 pips – more than three times the amount made by using the strict rules.

I´m not trying to provide you with a ´set and forget´strategy here. All I aim to do is to make it clear that focusing on the levels is a good way to make money trading.

I encourage you to look at the charts and the levels yourself and work out a method that suits your circumstances. You have to engage to be a decent trader and to be prepared to do the work yourself. By doing so you will build your confidence, form a plan and most importantly, trade it!

I hope the above gives you at least some food for thought.

If you want further information or to learn exactly how I trade just email me at mark@markwogan.com

Ok whats up for this week and today.

The Daily Chart

It has been a pretty contained few weeks in the markets with no real breakout up or down the chart. This is not surprising given the level of uncertainty and event risk.

The key things that we need to watch from a macro perspective right now are:

  1. Brexit – the meaningful vote is slated for the UK Parliament tomorrow the 11th Dec. although it could still be delayed.
  2. US inverted yield curve – this has been gaining in significance all last week as it tends to herald coming recession – i.e. risk off.
  3. Trade ´war´ – continued uncertainty especially post the Huawei arrest
  4. Italy and now France – while different issues they both help to potentially weigh on the eurusd.
  5. ECB Rate decision and minutes – due on Thursday 13th the language, forecast and press conference will set the tone either dovish or bearish.

All or any one of these issues has the potential to boost or sink our pair.

In terms of the chart we look to be about to test the 1.1450 level which remains the key pivot right now to suggest whether or not our head and shoulders pattern is going to play out.

The Hourly Chart

 

As I write the hourly is at 1.1437 after a strong open Sunday evening. This suggests a test of 1.1450 is on the cards and whether we get a close above will help to define direction for the week. Also we have opened the week with an hourly close above the descending triangle top trendline I mentioned last week. This is positive for higher prices but we do have the ECB Thursday and the Brexit vote tomorrow, both of which could impact considerably.

As ever and noting the above trade at the levels and at all times keep a level head!

Have a great week.

 

 

Mark Wogan

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

https://www.markwogan.com

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