Good morning traders.
In my absence yesterday eurusd knocked around the S1 level (1.1130) we had on the radar from Wednesday not getting anywhere very fast. I suspect most of you would have taken a break even trade with this one as it took until late afternoon yesterday to take out our model -13 stop. There were chances to take a few pips profit on the trade as well but overall it didn’t get anywhere. It does, however, prove that these closing levels are staging posts in the market and that there is always a better than even chance of gaining some positive pips.
Overnight we had Trump on the wires sticking Mexico with a 5% tariff on exports for failing to stop migrants getting to the US Border. I´m not sure where to begin with such a move so I wont bother. The upshot is that stocks were offered aggressively overnight with the S&P dropping 30 handles on the announcement. Risk off is not going away anytime soon. This didn’t immediately trigger a safe haven push up in the USDx so eurusd remained calm overnight.
For today we have German Retail Sales German ( just out – a big miss), preliminary CPIs during the course of the morning and US PCE (Personal Consumption and Expenditure) data this afternoon. The big data week is next week with the ECB Thursday and NFP on Friday.
The 240m Chart
The low at @ 1.1106 is still holding. We might have to wait until next week for a test but watch out for any fast moves today to shake out any weaker hands as we go into next weeks data events.
The reason I use ´line´charts is clear from this chart. You can see the closing level at @ 1.1140 before the move up and the way price is capped by this level subsequently. When you only look at candles you don’t see this as clearly. The wicks create a lot of noise around the close price but its the close price this is most important.
The Hour Chart
No S1 or R1 levels today. However, there are a number of levels where you could try a scalp.
Thats its for this week dear reader so have a good weekend and be ready for hopefully some data inspired action next week :).