Good morning traders.
As its the last day of the month and quarter I will keep this short and sweet and remember re-balancing flows could be a major factor in what happens today so be on your guard and flexible.
Regarding our model performance we had a -13 loser and a scratch trade from s2.
Scalping the evolving structure yesterday was a bit tricky but there were a few set ups to hit.
German CPI came in below expectations yesterday which adds further fuel to the poor data theme out of Europe. However, many commentators are starting to question the USD at these levels considering the yields on US paper. I doubt this will effect the USD today but another 50 pips higher and it will be testing this years highs.
So while we have poor economic performance in Europe that may not necessarily translate into lower eurusd prices due to a growing expectation of US rate cuts and or further dovish policy. Just something to bear in mind.
For today there is nothing of great importance on the data slate but headlines could throw in a few curve balls as always. The ongoing soap opera that is Brexit is due another vote today but thats not until later this evening so won´t be a factor. Meetings were held last night between US and China trade representatives and Asian and US equity markets took a push up over night on initial comments and optimism.
The Daily Chart
I mentioned earlier in the week that we seem to be slipping gradually down the chart and could be looking to form a lower range. Maybe we could be looking at 1.11 to 1.13 as being the next range instead of 1.13 to 1.15.
Nothing certain to suggest this yet but we will get a clearer picture as the new quarter progresses. Also on the chart we have a price action ´void´between approx 1.11 and 1.10 as noted. These have a tendency to get filled so could act as a guide for prices. Again we will have to just watch how things progress.
The Hourly Chart
I have shifted the key zones further away from price this morning to account for the quarter end uncertainty. But watch out for the levels I´ve also noted on the chart namely the big figs at 1.12 and 1.13 and 1.1250s.
Ok amigos that´s a wrap for the week. Its been good in parts for our model although largely uneventful and better for scalping.
Have a good one and enjoy your weekend. Back at ya Monday:).