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Mark Wogan: The week ahead

Diary Of A Trader
1. Diary of a Trader w/c 30 April
2. Diary of a Trader – w/c 7 May 2018
3. Diary of a Trader – w/c 14 May 2018
4. Diary of a Trader – w/c 21 May 2018
5. Dabbling with some crowdfunding
6. Diary of a Trader – w/c 6 August 2018
7. Mark Wogan: EURUSD in the week ahead
8. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Tuesday 25th September
9. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Wednesday 26th September
10. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Thursday 27th September
11. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Friday 28th September
12. Mark Wogan: Trading is a bit like the Ryder Cup
13. Mark Wogan: You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!
14. Mark Wogan: Using the 5m chart to take intraday entries
15. Mark Wogan: That Sinking Feeling
16. Mark Wogan: Non Farm Payrolls – Rip, Dip & Split
17. Mark Wogan: A waiting game for bank holidays
18. Mark Wogan: Is trading just a bunch of lines?
19. Mark Wogan: What it’s like to be a professional day trader
20. Mark Wogan: When a plan comes together..
21. Mark Wogan: It pays to take a level headed approach
22. Mark Wogan: EURUSD review – Don´t look back in anger!
23. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Might go up, down, or sideways!
24. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Patience is a virtue
25. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Patience is still the order of the day
26. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Feel the rhythm
27. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Lower time frame action
28. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Non Farm Payrolls Friday
29. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Fireworks on the 5th of November?
30. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Any effect from the Midterms?
31. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – FOMC to set the scene
32. Mark Wogan: FOMC – business as usual
33. Mark Wogan: Watch the levels and let the week unfold
34. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – how low can we go?
35. Mark Wogan: Will turaround Tuesday extend into Wednesday?
36. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – A tricky day to trade given the headline risk
37. Mark Wogan: That Friday Feeling
38. Mark Wogan: Event risk and confidence
39. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – One, two, three…ok lets go
40. Mark Wogan: So much for turnaround Tuesday
41. Mark Wogan: Thanksgiving Thursday
42. Mark Wogan: Its Monday so lets get going
43. Mark Wogan: Is eurusd 1.13 going to hold?
44. Mark Wogan: EURUSD cat and mouse at 1.13
45. Mark Wogan: Is Jerome Powell backing off?
46. Mark Wogan: G20 in focus
47. Mark Wogan: Trump and Xi appear to kiss!
48. Mark Wogan: Today´s eurusd levels and the USDx
49. Mark Wogan: Eurusd struggles in risky headwinds
50. Mark Wogan: Risk is the key
51. Mark Wogan: Whipsaw Friday?
52. Mark Wogan: Support & resistance – a level headed approach
53. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
54. Scott Phillips: Everything you never wanted to know about Trend Days
55. Mark Wogan: Model strategy pays out
56. Mark Wogan: ECB Thursday
57. Scott Phillips: The morning after pill
58. Mark Wogan: ECB – Nothing to see here move along now!
59. Mark Wogan: Monday Market
60. Mark Wogan: Fed under pressure?
61. Mark Wogan: FOMC this evening
62. Mark Wogan: Powell versus Trump – the verdict.
63. Mark Wogan: 2019 and all that
64. Mark Wogan: 2019 – bring it on!
65. Mark Wogan: 1.15 remains intact
66. Mark Wogan: Eurusd remains range bound
67. Mark Wogan: 1.15 – There she blows!
68. Mark Wogan: Eurusd 1.15 holds.
69. Mark Wogan: Eurusd at the crossroads
70. Mark Wogan: Quiet before the storm?
71. Mark Wogan: Eurusd reverses back into comfort zone!
72. Mark Wogan: Range downside to be tested?
73. Which breakouts are the best breakouts to trade
74. Trading Crude – the perfect call
75. Mark Wogan: Tight ranging action.
76. Scott Phillips: The Dumbening
77. Mark Wogan: Eurusd – where next?
78. Mark Wogan: Eurusd continues to test lower prices
79. Mark Wogan: Eurusd range holds awaiting ECB tomorrow
80. Mark Wogan: ECB Match Day!
81. Mark Wogan: Eurusd back up the chart!
82. Mark Wogan: keep an eye on the daily level of 1.1465
83. Mark Wogan: Eurusd and the FOMC
84. Mark Wogan: Post FOMC eurusd
85. Mark Wogan: Home on the range!
86. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
87. Mark wogan: Turnaround Tuesday anyone?
88. Mark Wogan: The long grind south
89. Mark Wogan: The long trek south
90. Mark Wogan: Action at last
91. Mark Wogan: Monday!
92. Mark Wogan: Tuesday – turnaround anyone?
93. Mark Wogan: Which way Wednesday?
94. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Support & Resistance zones
95. Mark Wogan: Friday’s EURUSD outlook
96. Mark Wogan: Eurusd on Monday 18.02.19
97. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Tuesday 19. 02. 19
98. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Wednesday 20.02.19
99. Mark Wogan: Thursday´s chart has far to go?
100. Mark Wogan: Talking Heads Friday
101. Mark Wogan: It´s Monday, 3…2…1…
102. Scott Phillips: What are the least reliable patterns in Technical Analysis?
103. Mark Wogan: Powell Testimony Tuesday!
104. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Weds 27. 02. 19
105. Mark Wogan: Eurusd – Steady as she goes!
106. Mark Wogan: New month – same Eurusd?
107. Mark Wogan: USD too strong – says Trump
108. Scott Phillips: When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir?
109. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday ?
110. Mark Wogan: The ECB Awaits
111. Mark Wogan: ECB – Will they unlock some volatility?
112. Mark Wogan: Back in the chair – ready to go!
113. Mark Wogan: Intraday ´scalping´.
114. Mark Wogan: FOMC
115. Mark Wogan: Movement at last.
116. Mark Wogan: Well that didn’t last long !
117. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
118. Mark Wogan: Tuesday 26 03 19
119. Mark Wogan: Which way Wednesday?
120. Mark Wogan: Quarter end flows
121. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
122. Mark Wogan: Is Spring in the air?
123. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
124. Mark Wogan: Rally anyone?
125. Mark Wogan: Another up day ?
126. Mark Wogan: Non Farm Friday
127. Mark Wogan: Heads Up – ECB Week
128. Mark Wogan: Are we going higher?
129. Mark Wogan: ECB – ´Nuff said !
130. Mark Wogan: Post match analysis
131. Mark Wogan: The weekend beckons.
132. Mark Wogan: The Week ahead for eurusd
133. How to avoid losses on counter trend trades
134. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Tuesday 16 4 19
135. Scott Phillips: The Counter Punch Method
136. Mark Wogan: The slow grind continues
137. Mark Wogan: Trading the Eurusd – It’s a heavy cross to bear!
138. Mark Wogan: Time to roll the dice again
139. Scott Phillips: How to identify an IDEAL setup
140. Mark Wogan: Look out below ?
141. Mark Wogan: Has the gate opened to 1.10?
142. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – the week ahead
143. Scott Phillips: The dramatic significance of all time highs in the stock market
144. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
145. Mark Wogan: May already !
146. Mark Wogan: FOMC outtakes.
147. Mark Wogan: May NFP
148. Mark Wogan: Tues. 07 05 19
149. Mark Wogan: Risk under pressure
150. Mark Wogan: Waiting for something to happen!
151. Mark Wogan: Tariffs Away !
152. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – the Week ahead
153. Mark Wogan: Shots fired (back)!
154. Mark Wogan: Wednesday´s wish list
155. Mark Wogan: Eurusd stuck at 1.12
156. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
157. Mark Wogan: EURUSD Morning briefing
158. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday anyone ?
159. Mark Wogan: FOMC minutes in focus
160. Mark Wogan: Where next?
161. Mark Wogan: Change in eurusd fortunes?
162. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
163. Mark Wogan: Wednesday 29 05 19
164. Mark Wogan: TGIF
165. Mark Wogan: June already ?
166. Mark Wogan: Eurusd rises overnight
167. Mark Wogan: Eurusd awaits the ECB
168. Mark Wogan: ECB – post match analysis.
169. Mark Wogan: Monday Eurusd charts
170. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday ?
171. Mark Wogan: Thursday´s Tariffs
172. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
173. Scott Phillips: S&P500 Short Opportunity
174. Mark Wogan: All eyes on Wednesday´s FOMC.
175. Mark Wogan. All eyes on FOMC later.
176. Mark Wogan: Powell holds his ground – for now
177. Mark Wogan: The Week ahead for Eurusd
178. Mark Wogan: Easing as she goes!
179. Mark Wogan: Eurusd, summer and me

Good morning traders.

Trust you all had a good long weekend (depending on where you are) and are ready for some fast paced eurusd action ? I´ll have to stop cracking this joke as its wearing thin, I know. The thing is I keep saying to myself – it’s going to change soon as we´ll get some movement and good price action and start making some decent Benjamins …. then nothing changes and we get more of this slow grind with no volatility.  Unfortunately this is trading and we simply have to make do with what we get.

Not that its such a big chore as we have constantly made money in the long run (although this last month we have had 2 losing weeks) but I know it’s tedious when you´re sat at your desk all day! These conditions are difficult for everyone but especially for newer traders as there is always the nagging doubt at the back of your mind to just get in the market.

This is trading 101 suicide. I know from raw experience how wrong this is. All you´ll end up doing is losing money faster than you thought possible. One mistake will compound the next and before you know it your capital base is severely depleted. Hang in there. Stick to the strategy. Do not deviate and remain disciplined. The levels work so trade only there.

Ok that’s enough of me free associating about the pitfalls of slow markets – time to get down to business.

Performance

Updated model and max strategy performance here. For more detailed info on the strategies we use click here. We have had 2 down weeks this month due to the tough trading conditions but I think our performance shows that a patient approach to just trading the levels we post for our model strategy pays dividends. Its not exciting but then who cares about excitement :). I´ll take the money every time.

Macro Update

Markets remain cautious due primarily to the on going and seemingly worsening trade war between the US and China. Nothing I’ve seen or heard suggests anything is going to get resolved any time soon so it appears we are in for an extended affair. Where this will lead is anyone’s guess but the history of such events regardless of what disingenuous politicians might say is not economically positive for anyone involved.

US China Trade War

From our point of view the big impact will be on the USDx and thereby the eurusd We have seen a modest pullback during the last week in the dollar index and with no real data impact this week it could continue. One scenario is that if there is a flight to safety the USD will go bid and leave the euro facing steeper declines.

On the other hand, if the Chinese stop buying USDs to purchase US debt (as they have threatened) this could go the other way but there will be others waiting in the wings to snap up what they may be selling so the impact could be muted. I don’t know where this will lead in the medium term.

All we do know is that the US economy remains stronger than just about anywhere else and while this might be a slight pullback in the USDx, it could still be looking to go higher as there is no other game in town that’s going to yield what US debt delivers.

EU Elections

The hard right / populist parties didn’t quite make the impact that many feared but they are now firmly entrenched within the EU policy making structures after these elections so could hold the key to how easily the federalist train can stay on track.

National debt and budgetary  policy would be one area where they could make an impact and obviously on immigration but that’s more of a political play. The one sure thing is that the likes of Macron and his ´Big Europe´ agenda will have a much tougher time. The upshot is that the euro could come under political pressure and hence be a hard buy to get to higher levels. Yesterday there was comment that the ECB could be looking to impose penalties on Italy of up to 4bln euros if they dont stick to budget guidelines.

Brexit

Where to start. With PM May now out (or soon to be) of the chair the next issue is who will replace her and what will be their views as to hard or soft brexit. I cant begin to go into the runners and riders here and try to figure out the play on each. All I can say is that the GBP remains under pressure and the chance of a hard Brexit has increased. This can’t be good for the eurusd.

In summary from a macro pov the risks to the euro look to be on the downside. However, we did get a decent pullback last week from just above the 1.11 level and technically we could still get some push higher in the next week up to the ECB on the 6th June.

For today and much of the week for that matter, we have no big ticket data items to contend with.

The Daily Chart

While we did get a move off the lows last week which gave the impression that there is more to come, we are forming a triangle pattern again and could break either side. The 1.12 level is holding further advances at present so we need a clean break above here to provide a base for a further push. The equal wick highs at 1.1265 would be the first target then 1.13. Whether there is enough fuel to push higher is debatable.

The Hour Chart

Levels as per.

We are at support at 1.1180 as I write this morning. We have a steep drop down to 1.1134 with little supportive structure to the downside apart from a staging post at 1.1150s. To the upside the R1 level at 1.1220s looks attractive but yesterday’s pa stalled at just above the big fig of 1.12.

Its remains difficult to see anything clearly given the price action right now so trade the levels and watch pa at the 1.12 or the 1.1150s to see whether we get any decent pattern on the lower time frame to suggest further extensions either way.

Have a good one :).

Mark Wogan

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

https://www.markwogan.com

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