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Mark Wogan: The Week ahead for eurusd

Diary Of A Trader
1. Diary of a Trader w/c 30 April
2. Diary of a Trader – w/c 7 May 2018
3. Diary of a Trader – w/c 14 May 2018
4. Diary of a Trader – w/c 21 May 2018
5. Dabbling with some crowdfunding
6. Diary of a Trader – w/c 6 August 2018
7. Mark Wogan: EURUSD in the week ahead
8. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Tuesday 25th September
9. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Wednesday 26th September
10. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Thursday 27th September
11. Mark Wogan: EURUSD on Friday 28th September
12. Mark Wogan: Trading is a bit like the Ryder Cup
13. Mark Wogan: You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!
14. Mark Wogan: Using the 5m chart to take intraday entries
15. Mark Wogan: That Sinking Feeling
16. Mark Wogan: Non Farm Payrolls – Rip, Dip & Split
17. Mark Wogan: A waiting game for bank holidays
18. Mark Wogan: Is trading just a bunch of lines?
19. Mark Wogan: What it’s like to be a professional day trader
20. Mark Wogan: When a plan comes together..
21. Mark Wogan: It pays to take a level headed approach
22. Mark Wogan: EURUSD review – Don´t look back in anger!
23. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Might go up, down, or sideways!
24. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Patience is a virtue
25. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Patience is still the order of the day
26. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Feel the rhythm
27. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Lower time frame action
28. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Non Farm Payrolls Friday
29. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Fireworks on the 5th of November?
30. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Any effect from the Midterms?
31. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – FOMC to set the scene
32. Mark Wogan: FOMC – business as usual
33. Mark Wogan: Watch the levels and let the week unfold
34. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – how low can we go?
35. Mark Wogan: Will turaround Tuesday extend into Wednesday?
36. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – A tricky day to trade given the headline risk
37. Mark Wogan: That Friday Feeling
38. Mark Wogan: Event risk and confidence
39. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – One, two, three…ok lets go
40. Mark Wogan: So much for turnaround Tuesday
41. Mark Wogan: Thanksgiving Thursday
42. Mark Wogan: Its Monday so lets get going
43. Mark Wogan: Is eurusd 1.13 going to hold?
44. Mark Wogan: EURUSD cat and mouse at 1.13
45. Mark Wogan: Is Jerome Powell backing off?
46. Mark Wogan: G20 in focus
47. Mark Wogan: Trump and Xi appear to kiss!
48. Mark Wogan: Today´s eurusd levels and the USDx
49. Mark Wogan: Eurusd struggles in risky headwinds
50. Mark Wogan: Risk is the key
51. Mark Wogan: Whipsaw Friday?
52. Mark Wogan: Support & resistance – a level headed approach
53. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
54. Scott Phillips: Everything you never wanted to know about Trend Days
55. Mark Wogan: Model strategy pays out
56. Mark Wogan: ECB Thursday
57. Scott Phillips: The morning after pill
58. Mark Wogan: ECB – Nothing to see here move along now!
59. Mark Wogan: Monday Market
60. Mark Wogan: Fed under pressure?
61. Mark Wogan: FOMC this evening
62. Mark Wogan: Powell versus Trump – the verdict.
63. Mark Wogan: 2019 and all that
64. Mark Wogan: 2019 – bring it on!
65. Mark Wogan: 1.15 remains intact
66. Mark Wogan: Eurusd remains range bound
67. Mark Wogan: 1.15 – There she blows!
68. Mark Wogan: Eurusd 1.15 holds.
69. Mark Wogan: Eurusd at the crossroads
70. Mark Wogan: Quiet before the storm?
71. Mark Wogan: Eurusd reverses back into comfort zone!
72. Mark Wogan: Range downside to be tested?
73. Which breakouts are the best breakouts to trade
74. Trading Crude – the perfect call
75. Mark Wogan: Tight ranging action.
76. Scott Phillips: The Dumbening
77. Mark Wogan: Eurusd – where next?
78. Mark Wogan: Eurusd continues to test lower prices
79. Mark Wogan: Eurusd range holds awaiting ECB tomorrow
80. Mark Wogan: ECB Match Day!
81. Mark Wogan: Eurusd back up the chart!
82. Mark Wogan: keep an eye on the daily level of 1.1465
83. Mark Wogan: Eurusd and the FOMC
84. Mark Wogan: Post FOMC eurusd
85. Mark Wogan: Home on the range!
86. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
87. Mark wogan: Turnaround Tuesday anyone?
88. Mark Wogan: The long grind south
89. Mark Wogan: The long trek south
90. Mark Wogan: Action at last
91. Mark Wogan: Monday!
92. Mark Wogan: Tuesday – turnaround anyone?
93. Mark Wogan: Which way Wednesday?
94. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Support & Resistance zones
95. Mark Wogan: Friday’s EURUSD outlook
96. Mark Wogan: Eurusd on Monday 18.02.19
97. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Tuesday 19. 02. 19
98. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Wednesday 20.02.19
99. Mark Wogan: Thursday´s chart has far to go?
100. Mark Wogan: Talking Heads Friday
101. Mark Wogan: It´s Monday, 3…2…1…
102. Scott Phillips: What are the least reliable patterns in Technical Analysis?
103. Mark Wogan: Powell Testimony Tuesday!
104. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Weds 27. 02. 19
105. Mark Wogan: Eurusd – Steady as she goes!
106. Mark Wogan: New month – same Eurusd?
107. Mark Wogan: USD too strong – says Trump
108. Scott Phillips: When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir?
109. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday ?
110. Mark Wogan: The ECB Awaits
111. Mark Wogan: ECB – Will they unlock some volatility?
112. Mark Wogan: Back in the chair – ready to go!
113. Mark Wogan: Intraday ´scalping´.
114. Mark Wogan: FOMC
115. Mark Wogan: Movement at last.
116. Mark Wogan: Well that didn’t last long !
117. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
118. Mark Wogan: Tuesday 26 03 19
119. Mark Wogan: Which way Wednesday?
120. Mark Wogan: Quarter end flows
121. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
122. Mark Wogan: Is Spring in the air?
123. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
124. Mark Wogan: Rally anyone?
125. Mark Wogan: Another up day ?
126. Mark Wogan: Non Farm Friday
127. Mark Wogan: Heads Up – ECB Week
128. Mark Wogan: Are we going higher?
129. Mark Wogan: ECB – ´Nuff said !
130. Mark Wogan: Post match analysis
131. Mark Wogan: The weekend beckons.
132. Mark Wogan: The Week ahead for eurusd
133. How to avoid losses on counter trend trades
134. Mark Wogan: Eurusd Tuesday 16 4 19
135. Scott Phillips: The Counter Punch Method
136. Mark Wogan: The slow grind continues
137. Mark Wogan: Trading the Eurusd – It’s a heavy cross to bear!
138. Mark Wogan: Time to roll the dice again
139. Scott Phillips: How to identify an IDEAL setup
140. Mark Wogan: Look out below ?
141. Mark Wogan: Has the gate opened to 1.10?
142. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – the week ahead
143. Scott Phillips: The dramatic significance of all time highs in the stock market
144. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?
145. Mark Wogan: May already !
146. Mark Wogan: FOMC outtakes.
147. Mark Wogan: May NFP
148. Mark Wogan: Tues. 07 05 19
149. Mark Wogan: Risk under pressure
150. Mark Wogan: Waiting for something to happen!
151. Mark Wogan: Tariffs Away !
152. Mark Wogan: EURUSD – the Week ahead
153. Mark Wogan: Shots fired (back)!
154. Mark Wogan: Wednesday´s wish list
155. Mark Wogan: Eurusd stuck at 1.12
156. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
157. Mark Wogan: EURUSD Morning briefing
158. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday anyone ?
159. Mark Wogan: FOMC minutes in focus
160. Mark Wogan: Where next?
161. Mark Wogan: Change in eurusd fortunes?
162. Mark Wogan: The week ahead
163. Mark Wogan: Wednesday 29 05 19
164. Mark Wogan: TGIF
165. Mark Wogan: June already ?
166. Mark Wogan: Eurusd rises overnight
167. Mark Wogan: Eurusd awaits the ECB
168. Mark Wogan: ECB – post match analysis.
169. Mark Wogan: Monday Eurusd charts
170. Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday ?
171. Mark Wogan: Thursday´s Tariffs
172. Mark Wogan: That Friday feeling
173. Scott Phillips: S&P500 Short Opportunity
174. Mark Wogan: All eyes on Wednesday´s FOMC.
175. Mark Wogan. All eyes on FOMC later.
176. Mark Wogan: Powell holds his ground – for now
177. Mark Wogan: The Week ahead for Eurusd
178. Mark Wogan: Easing as she goes!
179. Mark Wogan: Eurusd, summer and me

Good morning traders. Trust you all had a good weekend and are now ready for another week of seriously hard graft. I smile when people think / say trading must be a doddle. Jeez… if only they knew eh :).

First off we finished the week in good style on Friday with a nice reversal short from R1 for our model strategy and a long from the 1.1280 level I talked about in the Friday post for the Max strategy.

So if you took both that would be upwards of +50 for the day and / or +26 for our model strategy. Updated performance here.

Macro Update (a little context)

Before we go into my thoughts on the macro picture I´d like to state my personal view about the efficacy of undertaking fundamental analysis as it relates to day trading.

There are plenty of very credible analysts out there who write about this for a living. In the main some of them like Marc Chandler (@marcmakingsense) and John Hardy (@johnjhardy) of Saxo Bank write very insightful pieces and do a great job in my opinion. If you want to really dig into the macro stuff, you could a lot worse that to follow these guys on twitter.

From my perspective I do it because it helps to frame my thinking for my trading. Once I’ve thought through the bigger picture I feel better informed and I can look at the scenarios that could play out based on that thinking.

From a day trading perspective however, I try to make sure that I´m not too biased towards my views at the fundamental level. Confirmation bias is a big issue for traders.

When we are day trading we need to be much more mindful of the daily context and the reaction levels that look promising.

Fundamental views can take a very long time to play out. For example, while I might think the euro is going lower over the next few months, I use that thought only to give some color to the higher time frame charts. It rarely effects my short term day trading. I could quite easily be much more inclined to see that we are in for an up day based on the flow and price action context.

The upshot of this for anyone wanting to learn or to improve their trading is that while fundamental analysis is a great exercise for longer term framing and helps you to understand the environment you are working in, the charts and daily pa are really the only context we need to trade in the short term.

I wanted to cover this point as I was talking about it with a friend of mine the other day and I guess its relevant for anyone reading my posts.

On that note, here’s my current bigger picture thinking.

The Bigger Picture

With the ECB and the FOMC minutes out of the way we should have a better picture of where we should be headed in the eurusd. Well, that´s the theory.

Equities seem to be headed for new all time highs in the US and that should mean there is less pressure to hold USDs as a safe haven which in turn should open up the euro and other major currencies for higher prices against the greenback.

There is no reason to doubt the political will in the States to facilitate this and with Trump out of the woods re the Mueller Investigation and seemingly in a better position to start his campaign for a second term, a business friendly US White House should be good for the stock market.

But, the opposing view to this is that we are well into the bull market cycle and it is reasonable to expect that stocks could be in for a downturn, sharp or otherwise.

In which case this undermines our idea that the USD won’t be held as a safe haven. Add this to the IMF´s latest projections on global growth (particularly downgrades in the US and Europe) and you start to see the minefield we have to navigate  in trying accurately to  predict anything over the longer term.

From our perspective re the eurusd we still have Brexit hanging over us, a very dovish ECB, political uncertainty in France (which I think tends to be overlooked somewhat), and the rising populist movement in Italy (and elsewhere) who are still capable of tripping up the EU bandwagon politically and economically. Given this background there’s not much to suggest any fundamental reason to push the euro higher.

In summary then, my view is uncertain at best. We may get a short term rise in the euro but nothing fundamentally has changed so over time we could be looking at lower prices and or carving out a lower banded range.

That’s the best I can do right now. I guess I could just have cut to the chase and said – I don’t know lol. But as I said earlier trying to think through the macro environment helps me as a trader and even if I don´t have a clear view, its worth the thought process!

The 240m Chart

Looking at the 4h chart we tagged the 50% Fib precisely last week and backed off. The Fib itself has no magic qualities but residing as it did with the 1.1320s level we were targeting it was a decent reaction point.

We now have clear support at 1.1280s and lower at 1.1250s.

We don’t have much on the data slate until Thursday when we have EZ manufacturing PMI´s which could be a catalyst for a decent reaction.

The Hour Chart

Levels as per.

As we start the week price is just above the 1.13 big fig and we have completed the target from the inverse head and shoulders pattern. As this has acted as the range low for some time what happens here is important.  A clear push up would suggest 1.1350 comes into range as a first port of call.

Breaking and restesting from the underside and pushing back down suggests the rally may have run out of steam for now. The levels are clear for max strategy scalps and for our model strategy. As noted 1.1280 and 1.1250s are the main levels on the downside with 1.1325 and 1.1350 to the upside..

My plan is to trade whichever is triggered first to get a flavour of what might unfold for the week.

Have a good one.

Mark Wogan

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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