Good morning traders.
Thursdays child has far to go according to the rhyme – wonder if the same holds for the eurusd?
Although yesterdays piece was short and sweet due to technical problems we did get a good trade off. I posted my chart showing a long scenario from 1.1325 from our Support Zone 1 and it triggered almost exactly to the pip. It ran for 45 pips max so you should have made a decent return prior to the FOMC.
For today we have the aftermath of last nights FOMC to consider and European flash PMIs out this morning with US Core Durable Goods data this afternoon.
The FOMC was largely as expected if a little less dovish than some were anticipating. On balance it may have helped to stem the slide in the USDx and thereby further upside for the eurusd. If eurozone PMIs come in strong that could give our beleaguered pair a boost but there is nothing to suggest technically or fundamentally that we are ready to break this range to the upside.
Re Brexit – it seems some move towards resolution may be underway with comments from Spain´s Foreign Minister yesterday stating the the EU was working on a form of language in the letter accompanying the withdrawal agreement that accommodates the UK Parliaments need re the exclusion of an indefinite Irish backstop. However, it also appears the EU wants assurance that this would pass a vote before committing.
Re the US-China trade talks a number of MoU´s are being drafted covering some of the key points in the discussions. This would at least enable the two sides to deliver a partial agreement by the due date at the beginning of March although Pres. Trump has indicated that there is nothing “magical” about this date!
We wait to see what happens but my guess is that an agreement will be signed but with some critical points remaining for further negotiation. The last thing Trump will want is a slide in US indices in the event of a no deal. Interesting, that could still be the outcome; buy the rumour, sell the fact springs to mind?
I´ve noted S & R zones for today but keep an eye on the 1.13 level for a possible test. The subsequent reaction will be informative as to where we might be heading next. Also watch for our zones and levels to switch sides should we get a solid move one way or the other.
The Daily Chart
Nothing much to say that I´ve not said (too) many times already :).
The Hourly Chart
Zones as per.
I´ve not got it marked but also watch out for a move up from 1.1330 at the open.
Ok.. ready…lets go!