Good morning traders.
We got what we expected yesterday – more of the same. We broke through the 1.13 level and pushed down to 1.1265 but not before we had a counter-trend trade triggered from S1. If you manually managed the trade as I suggested yesterday it should have made you money. While it just missed our standard model take profit of 26 pips (24 on my broker chart) I will write it up as a 1:1 risk reward profit of +13.
For today I suggest you continue to manage trades manually particularly any longs while we are in this down trend. I will add notes in the comments section of the morning blog.
For today we have the Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann on the wires at 9.00 am CET. I suggest you take note of what he says and how the pair reacts before placing any trades today. Later in the day we have the Feds Powell at 6.45pm CET.
The USDx (US dollar index) just broke through the 97.00 level yesterday and is stretched at these levels as is the eurusd. We need to be mindful of any technical replacements while we remain at these levels in eurusd. But the trend is in so we are short till its not or long till we´re wrong !
Nothing to say about the macro perspective that we haven’t already discussed over the past couple of weeks. The trend remains the same and until it changes selling rallies is the order of the day.
The Daily Chart
A quick look at the Daily chart tells you all you need to know about the direction of travel. However we don´t have much structure to work with. We have taken out the 1.13 level again and pushed to the wick lows of November and December of last year. The next level is down at the 1.1215 ish the range low printed last November. Below that we have the 61.8% Fib of the entire low to high swing from Jan ´17 to Feb ´18. coming in just below the 1.12 level at around 1.1190.
The 15m Chart
As we push down through 1.13 it is difficult to see any decent structure to look for possible reactions on the hourly chart. So for today I´ve noted the 15m chart as it granulates the detail better. A move back up to the 1.13 would not be a surprise to retest the figure and again slightly higher at around the 1.1320 level. Immediate support comes in at around yesterdays low of 1.1265. No further real support comes in until the 1.12 figure but we might expect 1.1250 to provide some interim platform.
Any trades should be closely managed for today as per the above comments.
Good luck :).