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Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday ?

Good morning traders.

Nothing much to report from yesterday. We dipped down into S1 zone and had a scalp chance to make 10 – 15 pips on the first test from 1.1327 (the mid level I had marked out) which was quickly reversed for a further test under our bottom band into 1.1310.  If you took the first test – nice trade as there wasn´t much in terms of pa on the LTF charts to confirm it but we do know that first tests are very likely to bag some scalp pips. I will not record either a loss or a win for yesterday.

For today there´s nothing of any great importance on the data slate. We have Services PMI´s from the bigger countries and the Final reading for the Eurozone at 11.00 CET. Later we have Rosengren of the Fed on the wires and ISM Services PMIs for the US at 16.00 CET.

We had a bit of a wobble in US equities during yesterdays session but nothing too significant. Asian markets generally traded in a similar lacklustre fashion. It will be interesting to see how risk in equity markets fares today as it could impact the US dollar and hence the eurusd.

The eurusd looks to be under pressure at the moment and could be gearing up for a test of the 1.13 level and under. The USDx continued to move up yesterday but as I write is at the 61.8% Fib of the most recent downswing – see below. This could help to stem the eurusd´s slide if the dixie backs off from here.

The Daily Chart

In tandem with the USDx hitting the 61.8% the eurusd also nearly tagged the same Fib yesterday which corresponds with the big fig of 1.13 (just about). It backed off during the later afternoon session but looks vulnerable for a test lower.

The Hourly Chart


Levels and zones as per.

For today the main S & R look fairly clear. Any move back up to R1 at around 1.1355 should give us a good scalp chance on a first test. Similarly a run down to 1.13 has a high probability of a bounce. Above and below these levels we have zones where we need to wait for price action to confirm any trade.

Good luck compadres – remember if your scalping first tests are the best shots for today.




Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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