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Mark Wogan: Turnaround Tuesday?

Morning all!

After yesterdays long post about strategy etc. I´ll keep today short and on point.

As seems to be the case day after day, Brexit stole the show again yesterday. Today’s ´meaningful´ vote in Parliament is deferred ’til who knows when (or if) and the UK is in chaos regarding its divorce from its estranged partner the EU. The house, kids, dog, CDs (playlists now) all seem to be agreed on. It´s the line in the sand Irish restraining order that remains the deal breaker :).

While this is obviously more of a sterling issue, the direct counter party in this sordid little tale is the euro. I don´t know how much it will affect the eurusd but it seems reasonable to assume it won´t help it rise much while uncertainty reigns.

Given we have a complex macro picture with Brexit, Italy, Trade and Inverted yield curves, it´s hard to be sure what could happen. So, I suggest we focus on the upcoming ECB rate announcement and press conference on Thursday. At least this will give us some short to medium term direction.

The Daily Chart

While I had expected we might get a trip up to test 1.1450, we got the opposite, a dip down to 1.1350.

We are back in the middle of the triangle and with the ECB on Thursday, we could make another reasonable assumption for today and tomorrow that the eurusd won´t be doing much breaking out until then.

The Hourly Chart

S & R noted as per.

One thing to bear in mind for today is that the levels I´ve posted need to be traded cautiously. While this is always the case, pin point accuracy being a lucky anomaly most times in trading, sometimes I look at the chart and it is clearer where the levels are, sometimes not. Today is one of those days where its not particularly clear to me.

In which case, turnaround Tuesday or not, use the levels / ranges as a guide, drill down to the lower time frames and trade what you see.

Ok amigos – hard hats on and go get ’em!

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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