Good morning traders.
An uneventful day yesterday to say the least. Around a 20 pip range for most of my RTH (regular trading hours) session with none of our levels worried by price. We did get a decent entry to scalp short once the days highs had been taken at around 18.00 CET. After that a slow drift back to balance mid range with nothing happening overnight. Sometimes when there’s nothing to do – just do nothing!
Regarding RTH there are no ´true´RTH for currencies but I find using the DAX cash hours (9.00 and 17.30 CET, which I also trade) works for me as trading tails off after that point. That’s not to say that you can´t get good set ups either before or after and we obviously need to manage on going trades should we keep them overnight or longer.
But as a day trader I like to set myself ´working hours´ as it helps with discipline and routine. This is a business and whilst I run my business 24 / 7 I also make sure I take time off as it makes me sharper. I´ve come across lots of new traders who try to keep up on a 24 hour basis. That’s fine for a while but ultimately a zero sum game – just like trading itself.
If I´m in a trade overnight or for a longer swing I manage it to make sure I have little or no risk (or one I am comfortable with for longer swings) once I close up shop for the day. This ususually means I move stops to break even, take a partial profit and let it run. If it comes back to take me out I will get back in the next day or session if it is still a viable trade.
The eurusd traded tightly packed around the 1.12 fig. I suspect this is as much a function of the USD waiting for impetus from the US China trade talks. If there is no agreement in all likelihood the USD will go bid on safe haven flows (along with fixed income and the JPY) which would tend to push down the euro. However, we need to see how this plays out as we could also see the USD bid on a deal as equities get fresh legs.
I don´t know which way it will go so no point in trying to predict. Its best to know the scenarios that could play out and act accordingly. That’s the job – I´m not here to look or sound smart only to make money. I leave the heavy analytical lifting to those that make their money from it.
For today we have the Feds Powell speaking at 14.30 CET and US PPI.
The 240m Chart
No change on the 240m chart. Same scenarios as yesterday. We break up out of the triangle and watch for a retest to get long, we continue to coil or we wait for a push down for a possible bounce up or break and retest short.
The Hour Chart
Levels as per and nothing to add to comments as above. I´ll be watching the USD and its reaction to the US China trade talks to get a better feel for what might happen next.
Have a good day even though it might be a sit on hands day until there is something to trade :).