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Mark Wogan: Well that didn’t last long !

Good morning traders.

The exuberance of the push up on the FOMC didn’t last long :). We have now retraced the whole of the spike up and some, and are now as I write creeping back up 1.1370. Whether the initial push up on USD weakness was a false dawn or if this is simply a pull back to reload, the eurusd just doesn’t feel comfortable once its starts to poke its head up above any range highs.

Price aside though, I´d be quite happy if we could at least maintain this level of volatility. I have no concern whether it goes up or down as long as it goes somewhere during the day !

We saw US indices put in a strong performance after initially having a tepid at best response to Powell´s no hike pitch Wednesday evening. I´m picking up a good deal of (the usual) radio static that we are looking at new ATHs (all time highs) by mid year. I´ll simply keep an eye on the charts.

From a model pov we had a loser yesterday on the long from S1 so that´s a -13 for our results.

We have eurozone Flash manufacturing PMI´s coming out during the course of the morning with the German print carrying the most weight. If they come in strong that will help the euro´s cause.

The Daily Chart

We were right to watch the price action to get a ´day after´view of the event rather than try to predict direction.

While the Fed was viewed as very dovish which should be price positive for eurusd due to the USD backing off on policy easing, what we got was the remaining relative strength of the USD showing the euro who´s still boss.

Plus we knew we had a good deal of resistance hovering at the spike high (the 200 DMA, the 61.8% Fib of the most recent swing and structural resistance) so the pull back was not a great surprise.

That´s not to say we are going down rather that any move up is going to be a hard slog.  Maybe until we get a resolution to Brexit the range is all we are going to trade between 1.12 and 1,15 (50). As traders we don´t need to really answer these types questions as we will trade what we see.

The Hour Chart

Levels as per. Pretty clear between 1.13 and 1.1450.

My bias is neutral dependent on how PMI´s come in for day trades. If they beat expectations I suspect it will help to contain further drops so scalp longs on dips would be my plan. If they miss I´ll stay neutral. Either way I will trade what the chart gives me.

That´s a wrap for the week which leaves me with nothing further to add other than to wish you all a pleasant and relaxing weekend. See you Monday :).


Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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