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Mark Wogan: Which way Wednesday?

Good morning traders.

We finally got some movement in the pair yesterday and while it didn’t trigger any hourly zones we were watching there was plenty of room to get involved. As per my comments yesterday there was some good intraday price action on the lower time frames to scalp – see below chart.

In terms of the macro picture there is one thing I forgot to mention yesterday. Trumps clean sheet from Mueller on the Russian stuff will definitely help lift a cloud off risk assets as there is now no risk of any immediate reversals in business friendly policy from the White House. So that´s one cloud off the horizon whilst Brexit, China and EU growth concerns remain.

We also heard from Stephen Moore Trumps new pick for the Federal Reserve board saying that the Fed should cut rates. Not surprising considering his political patron but worth watching this space.

For today we have nothing on the data sheet apart from Draghi speaking at 9.00 CET and the usual headlines that can drive short term sentiment.

In terms of the USDx overnight we tagged just shy of the 97.00 level which is the 61.8% Fib of the most recent swing. This could act as a break at the top at least in the short term and could influence a push higher in the eurusd. However, our pair looked weak yesterday and even though we stalled at our S1 support overnight, this level will be critical for today in stemming any further decline.

The Daily Chart

A quick look at the daily shows us we are testing previous low levels and there´s a chance if this 1.1250 level holds that we could start to carve out a Head & Shoulder pattern. Nothing formed just yet its just a point to bear in mind. We could also watch out for a retest of the underside of TL A for a further move down or if we push through 1.1250 the range lows at 1.1190s could get taken. These are just scenarios for now but always worth trying to game plan what might happen as we will not then be surprise and react to what does happen.

The Hour Chart

Levels and zones as per.

If we hold S1 we could get some reaction at 1.1280 with 1.13 being a key test. Watch out for Support becoming Resistance in any strong push either way.

As indicated above, I scalp the chart as it unfolds during the day while we wait for hourly levels and I suggest you do the same. Not only is is a profitable exercise once you learn how to do but its great practice. By far the best way to learn this trade is to be involved and engaged!

Have a good day :).


Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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