The festive season is already bringing tidings of comfort and joy to American online retailers. Adobe’s NASDAQ:ADBE eagerly awaited Holiday E-Commerce Forecast predicts that between November and December 2025, US consumers will spend an impressive $253.4 billion online, that’s a 5% year-on-year increase and a $2 billion boost compared with last Christmas.
For retailers wary of a lacklustre season amid tariff uncertainties and fragile consumer sentiment, the news feels like an early gift under the tree.
Cyber Week — the five-day shopping frenzy spanning Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday — will remain the linchpin of the American retail calendar. Adobe expects it to generate $43.7 billion in sales, or roughly 17% of total online spending.
Notably, the forecast suggests that inflation-wearied American households are once again prioritising seasonal indulgence, bolstered by flexible credit and “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) schemes, which could account for $20.2 billion of online purchases, an 11% rise year on year.
What about UK retailers?
Across the Atlantic, the picture is more muted but still upbeat. Parcelhero, the British home delivery and international logistics specialist, expects a solid 3.7% rise in UK online Christmas sales, to £25.3 billion. That would comfortably outpace the 2.5% growth anticipated by some analysts and add almost £1 billion to last year’s digital till receipts.
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David Jinks, Parcelhero’s head of consumer research, notes that Britain’s shoppers are behaving strikingly like their American counterparts: anxious about inflation yet unwilling to let economic gloom dampen festive spending.
The company’s internal data suggests that Christmas shipment volumes are already outpacing 2024’s levels. If current trends persist, UK carriers could deliver some 1.42 billion parcels during the October–December peak, up from 1.29 billion last year.
Black Friday remains important for UK
The Black Friday weekend remains central to Britain’s e-commerce economy. In 2024, shoppers spent £3.63 billion online during the four-day stretch — a 5.2% annual rise. Parcelhero anticipates another 5% bump this year, bringing total online Black Friday sales to around £3.8 billion.
Meanwhile, early shopping habits are gaining traction. Research from Sensormatic Solutions shows that nearly a quarter of British consumers had started their Christmas purchasing by early October, while another 59% plan to buy in advance to spread costs over multiple paydays.
BNPL continues to grow as a festive financing tool. Thinkmoney, a UK banking app, finds that roughly one in seven Britons expects to use instalment schemes this Christmas, with enthusiasm highest among 25- to 34-year-olds, nearly three-quarters of whom view BNPL as a practical way to stretch their budgets.
Self-gifting on the rise
Self-gifting also appears to be on the rise. According to eBay Advertising UK, nearly one in three British consumers plans to spend more on themselves than on friends or family this year, a figure rising to half among Millennials. For e-commerce platforms, such indulgence offers a cheerful counterbalance to macroeconomic jitters.
Yet one shadow looms: Britain’s forthcoming Autumn Budget, scheduled for November 26th. Any hint of tax rises could dampen consumer confidence just as the peak season begins. Retailers will watch Black Friday spending two days later for clues to whether shoppers will splurge or scrimp.
For now, the omens remain encouraging. If British consumers emulate their American peers in shaking off economic worries, this year’s digital Christmas may yet deliver a gift worth unwrapping — a modest but merry recovery in online retail.
