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Our 2021 Picks: How did we get on in June?

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Less activity in the portfolio in June. The market seems confused about which way to jump although many fund managers were quietly rotating out of technology stocks as their valuations entered crazy territory. There is obviously a lot of nervousness in the market around inflation and the direction of bond yields.

We are now entering a shaky period where, on top of COVID news flow, portfolio managers will be look harder at US macro data. Liquidity in the market is also well down going into the summer. This should translate into wilder short term price gyrations in the market.

Kingfisher

We added a short trade on Kingfisher this month. We were seeing some heavy selling activity in the stock and felt that it had given much of what it was likely to give to investors. We were also seeing negative bias towards Kingfisher (LON:KGF) from both long term and shorter term allocators. This negative sentiment seemed fairly sustained as we watched it for over two weeks. As with other shorts, we are looking here for some short term downside activity on the stock.

Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping

We added Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (NYSEARCA:BDRY), which is listed in the US. We had the opportunity to talk to the ETF’s creator John Kartsonas on the podcast recently, where he brief listeners on the dynamics of the massive dry bulk shipping market. BDRY was by far and away the best performing ETF in the global universe in 1H. This reflected a squeeze on dry bulk shipping prices globally – a massive shortage of hulls in the right place. Kartosonas says on the podcast that this is a trade he expects to persist into 2H. While we are not expecting another +250% from the ETF in 2H, we would be pleased with +50%.

Bumble

The US dating app came into the portfolio as we could see it had some decent momentum characteristics. There was a lot of demand for Bumble (NASDAQ:BMBL) stock pre-listing and it traded up post-IPO demonstrating that the demand remains sustained. The stock had come down to more realistic pricing levels since then. We added it to the tactical bucket with a tight stop loss to see if the stock could achieve some upside.

Turkish Airlines

This one was a little left field for us but we think Turkish Airlines has been making big strides into the course of the pandemic when many airlines have been largely grounded and praying for the package tours and business travel to return. We expect some gyrations from the share price over the short term as airlines are heavily exposed to progress on the pandemic. Turkish Airlines [IST:THYAO] will be vulnerable to any lockdowns in Turkey itself as this is the company’s hub. Turkish Airlines was the busiest carrier in Europe during the pandemic and has demonstrated operational agility in its cost cutting activities and active capacity management.

Red Moon Resources

Regular readers will have noted we added Red Moon Resources (TSXV:RMK) to the venture portfolio in May. The stock is already up 65% for us by end June. This is a Canadian listed salt miner which we had been looking at for some time. We decided the stock was already moving so jumped in. Red Moon has been attracting market interest partly as a source of cheap salt for road gritting in Canada and the US, but also because it can offer huge hydrogen storage facilities in close proximity for major NE US and Canadian cities.


Here’s how our picks are performing

Tactical trading portfolio

These are shorter term equity and commodity trades which we can see playing out within one to three months. We will sometimes keep these on longer if the trade is still quite range bound but we are anticipating further upside. These trades have the tightest risk parameters.

Company/Instrument Start price Current price* Percentage change
Raytheon Technologies 73.3 85.31 +16.4%
Sosander 15.8 24 +52.4%
Lloyds Bank 40.4 46.69 +15.5%
Glencore 272 309.45 +13.8%
S4 Capital 5.8 6.28 -8.3%
Kingfisher [Short] 342.40 364.50 +6.5%
Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping 30.14 27.32 -9.4%
Bumble 55.19 57.6 +4.4%

**Prices as of close of play on 30th June 2021

Longer term buy and hold portfolio

These are positions where we see a longer term growth scenario, usually in the small to mid cap space, but sometimes larger companies. We will typically be keeping these stocks on the list for at least six months and often longer. Consequently our risk tolerance is higher for these positions than for the trading list.

Company/Instrument Start price Current price* Percentage change
Remedy Entertainment 14 47.25 +242%
Harvia 8.86 50.5 +470%
Yellow Cake 211.50 271.5 +28.3%
ITM Power 260 455.4 +90.3%
Nio 27.96 53.2 +75.2%
MTI Wireless 47.0 69.5 +47.9%
QT Group 86.40 98.7 +14.2%
Nordnet 152.20 144.45 -5.1%
The Panoply 268 247.5 -7.7%
First Rand 5229 5359 +2.5%
Kamux 12.64 16.39 +29.7%
Turkish Airlines 13.86 13.75 -0.8%

*Prices as of close of play on 30th June 2021

Venture portfolio

These are companies which we see as having long term and considerable growth prospects. Due to their size and the nature of the business they are in, we feel that our normal risk management constraints should not be applied to these stocks.

Nano One 1.13 4.43 +292%
Pineapple Power 3.25 7.00 +115%
Taat Lifestyle & Wellness 1.26 2.54 +102%
Kodiak Copper 0.24 1.63 +579%
Rritual Superfoods 0.80 0.73 -8.8%
Brigadier Gold 0.28 0.09 -67.9%
Euro Manganese 0.44 0.46 +4.6%
Thunderbird Entertainment 1.05 4.12 +292%
Cypherpunk 0.21 0.16 -23.8%
ProStar 0.89 0.58 -34.8%
Tombill Mines 0.23 0.25 8.7%
Wedgemount Resources 0.50 0.62 +24.0%
Minnova Corp 0.35 0.25 -28.6%
Red Moon Resources 0.82 1.36 +65.9%

**Prices as of close of play on 30th June 2021

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Make sure you do your own research or consult a professional advisor.

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