November remained a month where a lot of investors – ourselves included – remained focused on the progress of inflation. In a recent article on our site we identified inflation as one of the key risks facing financial markets in 2022. It has been obvious to us for some time that inflation will remain a significant consideration for investors for months to come.
The tricky part of managing short term portfolios in the current environment remains the influence of COVID. It can help to steer clear of some sectors where its impact will be most keenly felt, but it can also create opportunities for short term trades on both the long side and the short side if you can find them.
Gold
We added physical gold as a position to the tactical trading portfolio last month. Like a lot of other investors we saw some technical elements in the gold market which pointed to another step higher for the gold price. We are using the SPDR Gold Shares ETF for primary gold market exposure as we think it could provide some short term upside if the market gets spooked by some higher inflation reads over the next few months.
Bumble
We are removing Bumble from our tactical trading portfolio, as it has triggered our stop loss. We entered the trade at 55.19 on 23 June. We identified it as a possible momentum play and a beneficiary of successive lockdowns, especially in the US. Shares have been trading in a range since then while the market has tried to make up its mind as to which way the pandemic is going. The stock had bounced between $47 and $60. We were eventually forced to part company with Bumble as the stock sold off, exiting on 1 November. We sold at $45.
Trainline
We entered Trainline on 28 July at 332p as we thought it still looked relatively undervalued. The UK was starting to open up, and while it was still high summer, we thought there might be some opportunity to make some short term gains on the stock. We weren’t alone as we could see some other investors were trying to execute the same recovery play using Trainline. The stock hit a high of 381p but started slipping as we moved into October. We sold out at 343p as per our trading rules.
Marshall Motor Holding
A special mention to Marshall Motor Holding which sits in our longer term buy and hold portfolio. We were up over 43% on the trade having entered at 273p (end November). Our logic here was that we identified a premium opportunity in the UK second hand car dealership networks. Marshall looks like a very well managed company with the cash to continue to make acquisitions. The company has now received a bid from Constellation Automotive which it is hoping shareholders will accept. The Marshall family, which owns 64% of the company, has already accepted the bid. At time of writing shares were at 393.5p.
Also removed last month was Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping due to it triggering our 10% stop loss trading rule.
Tactical trading portfolio
These are shorter term equity and commodity trades which we can see playing out within one to three months. We will sometimes keep these on longer if the trade is still quite range bound but we are anticipating further upside. These trades have the tightest risk parameters.
| Company/Instrument | Start price | Current price* | Percentage change |
| Raytheon Technologies | 73.3 | 80.92 | +10.4% |
| Sosander | 15.8 | 34.80 | +121% |
| Lloyds Bank | 40.4 | 46.80 | +15.8% |
| Glencore | 272 | 357.10 | +31.3% |
| S4 Capital | 5.8 | 5.79 | -0.2% |
| Hugo Boss | 52 | 51.62 | -0.7% |
| BP | 337.95 | 325.45 | -3.7% |
| SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 173 | 165.97 | -3.5% |
*Prices as of close of play on 30th November 2021
Longer term buy and hold portfolio
These are positions where we see a longer term growth scenario, usually in the small to mid cap space, but sometimes larger companies. We will typically be keeping these stocks on the list for at least six months and often longer. Consequently our risk tolerance is higher for these positions than for the trading list.
| Company/Instrument | Start price | Current price* | Percentage change |
| Remedy Entertainment | 14 | 38.40 | +174.3% |
| Harvia | 8.86 | 55.0 | +520.8% |
| Yellow Cake | 211.50 | 333.50 | +57.7% |
| ITM Power | 260 | 458.0 | +76.2% |
| MTI Wireless | 47.0 | 73.0 | +55.3% |
| QT Group | 86.40 | 134.2 | +55.3% |
| Nordnet | 152.20 | 168.10 | +10.4% |
| The Panoply | 268 | 262.50 | -2.1% |
| First Rand | 5229 | 5583.0 | +6.8% |
| Turkish Airlines | 13.86 | 17.22 | +24.2% |
| Generac Holdings | 430.34 | 421.24 | -2.1% |
| Live Nation | 81.78 | 106.65 | +30.4% |
| Bellway | 3474 | 3118.0 | -10.2% |
| Morgan Sindall Group | 2600 | 2375.0 | -8.7% |
| Spectris | 3948 | 3503.0 | -11.3% |
| Marshall Motor Holding | 273.0 | 392.0 | +43.6% |
| Airtel Africa | 109.6 | 124.8 | +13.9% |
*Prices as of close of play on 30th November 2021
Venture portfolio
These are companies which we see as having long term and considerable growth prospects. Due to their size and the nature of the business they are in, we feel that our normal risk management constraints should not be applied to these stocks.
| Company/Instrument | Start price | Current price* | Percentage change |
| Nano One | 1.13 | 3.34 | +195.6% |
| Taat Global Alternatives | 1.26 | 2.86 | +127% |
| Kodiak Copper | 0.24 | 1.15 | +379.2% |
| Euro Manganese | 0.44 | 0.53 | +20.5% |
| Thunderbird Entertainment | 1.05 | 4.99 | +375.2% |
| Pineapple Power | 3.25 | 8.60 | +164% |
| ProStar | 0.89 | 0.50 | -43.8% |
| Wedgemount Resources | 0.50 | 0.19 | -62% |
| Cypherpunk Holdings | 0.21 | 0.20 | -28.6% |
| Minnova Corp | 0.35 | 0.12 | -65.7% |
| Red Moon Resources | 0.82 | 1.32 | +61% |
| Cloudbreak Discovery | 4.50 | 1.50 | -66.7% |
| Zoglo’s Incredible Food Corp | 0.43 | 0.20 | -53.5% |
| EnWave Corp | 1.01 | 0.92 | -8.9% |
| Net Zero Infrastructure | 0.045 | 0.038 | -15.6% |
*Prices as of close of play on 30th November 2021
