We thought we’d kick off our podcast series in 2023 with a look ahead to the markets with an experienced analyst. In this case Wael Makarem, Senior Market Strategist with Exness in the United Arab Emirates. On the podcast we talk about a number of different fast-moving markets in 2023 which investors need to be cognisant of.
The cryptocurrency markets had a very turbulent year in 2022, capped off with the collapse of FTX and the arrest of its founder Samuel Bankman-Fried in the Bahamas. With a huge sell-off in Bitcoin in 2H, the premise that BTC was somehow the new gold and could be used as an inflation hedge was dispelled. We discuss the future for crypto: is it all over, or will 2023 see it coming back into vogue with traders?
Gold has been seeing a remarkable rally in December; the rally has something to do with inflation, but there are also moves afoot that are looking a little more profound. There has been heavy buying of gold by central banks and other government bodies, especially in Asia. Some analysts think this is paving the way towards the creation of an alternative currency framework to the USD. Others speculate that this has more to do with the anticipated slowing of Fed rate rises.
We also got a chance to discuss the future of oil prices in the wake of the big energy bull market sparked off by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Is the OPEC oil cartel still in control of the oil price, and if so, what kind of price for oil is OPEC interested in? Brent crude has seen a remarkable decline since August when it was trading at over $100/bbl. The price has now twice tested the $70 resistance level in the course of December. With China now opening up in the wake of zero-Covid, should investors anticipate an oil rally?
Japan and the Yen
The decision by the Bank of Japan to tweak its yield curve control policy in December led to a sudden surge in the JPY against all the other major currencies. It was a big surprise for forex traders, who were anticipating something in April from the BoJ and more muted in nature at that. Traders are aware that the BoJ is now the owner of half the Japanese government bond market, which is crazy. We discuss the BoJ’s decision on the podcast and also look more widely at the ECB and the Eurozone market.
But as we all know, Q1 is going to be about the Fed, which seems to be held in almost religious awe by traders right now. Everyone wants to know where US interest rates policy is going, and Wael gives us a few of his thoughts on why traders can anticipate in the USD market.
We are already booking in other guests for the podcast for January and February. You can subscribe to it on all the major podcast channels. And if you are an AT+ member, you can also suggest future guests and topics for us to cover.