Yesterday the cost of oil rose to over $90 a barrel for the first time this year as a result of the two largest oil exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, continuing to cut their supplies until the end of the year. This represents a 20% rise in prices the last three months.
As Saudi Arabia and Russia seek to increase their prices, concern over rising inflation pressures globally is climbing.
Together, they are cutting a total of 1.3m barrels a day, despite the global demand increasing and its initial implementation being a temporary measure.
Meanwhile Saudi Arabia announced that they will resume monitoring the markets and could take additional action if needed, further impacting economies worldwide.
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Significant technical momentum for oil
“On Tuesday, Brent crude futures made quite a jump, rising by $1.04 per barrel, marking a 1.2% increase and settling at $90.04 per barrel,” said Kate Leaman, chief market analyst at AvaTrade “This was a significant moment as it broke through the $90 threshold for the first time since 16th November 2022. Simultaneously, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures followed suit, climbing by $1.14, a 1.3% gain, with a closing price at $86.69 per barrel, reaching its highest point in 10 months.”
October WTI crude oil futures were pricing at close to $87 at time of writing. There were some big gains in the final hours of trading in the US Wednesday night.
It’s common to link big changes in oil prices with how the stock market performs.
We often think that when oil prices go up, it means more expenses for businesses and consumers, potentially leading to lower corporate profits. On the flip side, when oil prices go down, it should be good news.
An economist named Andrea Pescatori studied this relationship back in 2008. He looked at the S&P 500, which is a way to measure how well the stock market is doing, and oil prices. What he found was a bit surprising. Sometimes, these two things moved together, but it wasn’t a strong connection, and he couldn’t say for sure that they were linked with a 95% confidence level.
The impact of oil prices on the U.S. economy is pretty complex. When oil prices are high, it can be good for some things like creating jobs and encouraging investment in the oil industry.
But it’s not all sunshine and roses as high oil prices can also make life more expensive for businesses and people who rely on transportation. On the other hand, lower oil prices might not be great for unconventional oil operations, but they can be a boon for industries that are sensitive to fuel costs. So, it’s a bit of a balancing act.
Nevertheless, in the UK, where not much oil is produced, the impact can be more direct. Since the country relies heavily on oil imports, when prices go up, it hits consumers harder, especially because of those higher fuel taxes. On the plus side, in UK cities, where public transportation is more common, it can help ease the burden on individual households.
The Saudi moves are also likely in response to a constant flow of negative economic news coming out of China, which is a big consumer of Middle East oil.
In addition the Biden administration announced on Wednesday it was scrapping Alaska oil leases that were awarded in the dying days of the Trump administration, sited in a wildlife preserve. However oil analysts said there was minimal interest from the industry, and these moves by both presidents can largely be seen as symbolic.
