December is always something of a quiet month, with trading volumes drying up midway through the month as the bulk of the Western world goes on vacation. The start of the month was very subdued and it did seem as if traders were sitting on their hands waiting to see what Donald Trump had in store once he was inaugurated.
There remains a lot of money and attention directed at the tech-heavy US momentum trade and also parked in passive investing strategies. This will not last forever. As part of our forecasts for 2025 we said we expected the popular Mag 7 trade to break up in 2025. Given the huge number of fund managers with concentrated Mag 7 bets, this could have broad repercussions once it happens.
We finally closed our epic Turkish Airlines trade in December, as the stock is starting to retreat. We went into Turkish Airlines really in the closing stages of the pandemic, when we realised just how much money the company was making from its uninterrupted air cargo business in Europe. This followed chance conversation with the IR team at Turkish Airlines. The trade was almost a 20 bagger for us but we don't think we'll get much more out of it.
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