In what is sure to be uncomfortable reading, the UK reveals its first quarter GDP reading this Wednesday.
UK: BoE set to confirm recession on Wednesday
Trying to get all its bad news out of the way at once, Wednesday is the undoubted trading focus for the UK this week.
Following on from a stagnant showing in Q4, the UK is set to have slid into a recession in the first quarter, with the Bank of England forecasting a 3% contraction. And, given the coronavirus pandemic only started directly affecting the country in the final couple weeks of March, that’s just a taste of what’s to come – the Bank of England is expecting a staggering 25% slump for Q2 once the quarter is over.
It is worth noting that the central bank is also estimating a 15% rebound across 2021, though there is a long way to go between now and then.
The monthly GDP number will no doubt paint a similarly grim picture, while the manufacturing and industrial production figures are likely facing a deep dive into the red.
UK: Stocks To Watch
As for the corporate calendar, Centrica and Diploma report on Monday, Vodafone on Tuesday, Compass Group on Wednesday and Premier Foods, Countryside and Grainger on Thursday.
China: Inflation data poised to make or break markets
The real market-moving numbers this week could well be those out of China. The latest inflation data arrives on Tuesday, while early Friday morning sees a classic data-dump.
With the recent PMIs suggesting something of a recent comeback, investors may be hoping that the fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales readings can all see improvements on the negative numbers posted last time out. The unemployment rate will also arrive on Friday.
US: A steady stream of economic data
Though there’s nothing likely to be as headline-grabbing as the recent nonfarm numbers, the US still has a steady stream of data to deal with this week.
The inflation figures arrive on Tuesday, the PPI numbers on Wednesday, another potentially gruesome jobless claims reveal on Thursday, and then the latest retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment readings on Friday.
Eurozone: German and region-wide Q1 GDP readings
In terms of Eurozone data, there’s Italian industrial production on Tuesday, region-wide industrial production on Wednesday, German inflation on Thursday, and, most importantly, German and region-wide Q1 GDP readings on Friday.
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